The 2023-24 NFL season is upon us, and there’s plenty of intrigue, drama, and storylines to follow.

Week 1 is one of the hardest weeks to predict in the NFL (but just wait, Week 2 can be even harder if you read too much in to Week 1 results.) We don’t fully understand yet who the good and bad teams are, and how the 2023 NFL Draft and Free Agency will shake up teams.

Opening night pits the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs against a Detroit Lions team on the rise. Sunday will see the NFL debuts of C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson. Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott will go toe-to-toe on Monday Night Football in search of an early NFC East lead for either the New York Giants or Dallas Cowboys. And the week wraps up with a huge matchup: Aaron Rodgers taking the field for the first time as a New York Jet, against the presumptive AFC East favorites, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

How will the Week 1 play out? Read on for my 2023-24 NFL Week 1 Picks, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

Previous Picks Records

2020-21 NFL Season: 157-98-1 (62%)

2021-22 NFL Season: 178-93-1 (66%)

2022-23 NFL Season Total: 170-112-2 (60%)

I have hit on at least 60% of my picks for three straight seasons, but 60% last year was my lowest mar in the three-year period. Without comparing to other picksters, it’s hard to say if my predicting ability is diminishing, or if the NFL just had a lot of wacky results last season: probably a little bit of both.

Thursday Night Football

(Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports)

Detroit Lions (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0): Chiefs win 27-24. There’s a lot of buzz around the 2023-24 Detroit Lions and many are calling for an upset in Week 1, but I see Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs holding on at home, even if it’s a close game. EDIT: Yes, I still think the Chiefs will be able to win without tight end Travis Kelce.

Sunday Games

(Kareem Elgazzar via Imagn Content Services, LLC)

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0): Bengals win 42-20. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals aren’t just AFC North favorites, they’re one of the most likely teams to win the AFC this season. I have them jumping out with a statement win against Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.

Houston Texans (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0): Ravens win 27-16. The newly-upgraded Baltimore Ravens roll to a home win over rookie C.J. Stroud in his first NFL start.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0): Buccaneers win 20-17. The Minnesota Vikings are the better team here for sure, but I can’t go all chalk in Week 1. I’m calling for a Baker Mayfield special, and again, it’s not based on much other than intuition that favorites won’t win every game, and there’s bound to be a couple surprises, as there is every Week 1.

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0): Panthers win 17-16. Bryce Young vs. Desmond Ridder might not be an aerial shootout, with both quarterbacks’ relative lack of experience. Should be a low-scoring game that could break either way, but I have Bryce Young as the lone rookie winning his Week 1 start.

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Washington Commanders (0-0): Commanders win 27-13. No Kyler Murray for the Arizona Cardinals, who will likely turn to Josh Dobbs. It will be a rough start for Arizona, much to the benefit of Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0): Jaguars win 30-13. Between starting rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson and missing running back Jonathan Taylor, I can’t see the Indianapolis Colts’ offense cooking much of anything in Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0): 49ers win 26-17. Before losing literally every quarterback they had in last season’s NFC Championship Game, the San Francisco 49ers were unbeatable for nearly three months. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey get back to business with a road win in Pittsburgh to start the 2023-24 season.

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0): Saints win 24-20. Certainly a toss-up, but I’m a believer in Derek Carr and think the New Orleans Saints will enjoy a decent season. The verdict is still out on the Tennessee Titans, and I think they’ll keep it very close.

Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0): Broncos win 23-17. For what feels like the 14th time in 16 seasons, the Denver Broncos enter a “new era:” the Sean Payton era. While only time will tell if Payton can mold this year’s roster in to a competitive team, a Week 1 win over a seemingly rebuilding Las Vegas Raiders team seems likely.

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0): Eagles win 28-16. Mac Jones and the New England Patriots will not be able to keep up with Jalen Hurts and last year’s Super Bowl runner-ups, the Philadelphia Eagles.

Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0): Seahawks win 26-18. The Los Angeles Rams will bounce back a bit this year, but without Cooper Kupp in Week 1, last year’s playoff Seattle Seahawks should come ot on top at home.

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0): Dolphins win 27-26. Two AFC wildcard teams from last year clash, both with electric quarterbacks, and the outcome of this game could actually be pretty important down the line. With an off-season to get the roster healthy, I have the Miami Dolphins starting the season strong and walking out of SoFi Stadium with a “by the skin of their teeth”-type win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0): Bears win 20-16. My expectations for the Jordan Love era, and particularly in Week 1, are pretty low. I’m not saying the Chicago Bears are going to win the NFC North this season, but I certainly like what they have going on more than I do for the Green Bay Packers.

NFL 2023: Preseason Power Rankings

Sunday Night Football

(NFL.com)

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0): Cowboys win 27-24. In my 2023-24 NFC East Predictions, I have the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys neck-and-neck by the end of the season. Conventional wisdom would say I’d probably at least give the Giants a home win over their rivals, but New York just doesn’t seem like a super hot out of the gates team. Dallas takes Round 1.

Monday Night Football

(Sports Illustrated, Sporting News)

Sak Sports Blog Game of the Week: Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0): Bills win 30-24. Aaron Rodgers will put the New York Jets in position to compete in nearly every game this season. But while a win in his team debut is certainly possible, I’m not betting against Josh Allen and a super talented Buffalo Bills team until Rodgers proves himself as a Jet.

See Also

2023-24 NFL Predictions

AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West

NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West

More

NFL

NBA

More Sports

More By Me

Header Photo Credits (L-R): Sports Illustrated, Sporting News

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