Super Bowl 57 features the two best teams from the 2022-23 NFL season going at it in Glendale, Arizona. On one side, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs look for their second Super Bowl title in five seasons, while the Philadelphia Eagles are gunning for their second title in six seasons, and their first with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.

While there were plenty of deserving teams and storylines (the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, and San Francisco 49ers all played with championship pedigree this season,) it’s hard to think of a better matchup than this one.

I’ve been publishing weekly Picks and Power Rankings, in addition to preseason brackets and playoff predictions, since Summer 2022, but now it’s time for the last pick of the 2022-23 NFL season: my Super Bowl 57 Prediction.

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Picks Record

2022-23 NFL Regular Season: 162-107-2 (60%)

2022-23 NFL Playoffs: 7-5 (58%)

2022-23 NFL Season Total: 169-112-2 (60%)

Previous Super Bowl Predictions (2-2)

Super Bowl 53: Predicted the Los Angeles Rams would beat the New England Patriots 36-30 in overtime. Was wrong on the Rams, and the game was ultimately a low-scoring snooze with New England winning 13-3.

Super Bowl 54: Predicted the Kansas City Chiefs would overcome the San Francisco 49ers 37-30, and in reality the Chiefs won 31-20 after a fourth quarter comeback.

Super Bowl 55: Predicted an epic shootout and last-minute game-winning drive from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, projecting a 37-36 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The real outcome was much less exciting, with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers prevailing 31-9.

Super Bowl 56: Predicted the Los Angeles Rams would beat the Cincinnati Bengals 27-22, and reality was pretty close, a 23-20 Rams win.

Setting the Stage

Game Info

Location: State Farm Stadium at the University of Phoenix in Glendale, Arizona (third Super Bowl at State Farm Stadium, fourth in Arizona)

Time: 6:30 PM ET/3:30 PM PT

TV: Fox

Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

Game Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs were each the best team in their respective conference this season, combining for a staggering 32-6 record this year including the playoffs. The Eagles record with Jalen Hurts on the field is even more impressive: 16-1, with a lone loss to the Washington Commanders.

While both teams finished with the same record, you could say the Chiefs got “beat” more, with Patrick Mahomes playing in all three losses.

But zooming out and looking at the big picture, Mahomes and the Chiefs have been elite for five straight seasons, earning their third trip to the Super Bowl in that span with an AFC Championship Game win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Kansas City and Philadelphia finished #1 and #2 in the NFL in scoring this season, putting up 29.2 and 28.0 points per game respectively. The Eagles backed their offense up with the 8th-ranked scoring defense in the league, allowing 20.2 points per game, while the Chiefs finished literally in the middle of the pack, allowing 21.7 points per game.

On paper, this should be Philadelphia’s game to lose: if the Eagles can grab an early lead, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, and a super efficient offense should be able to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands for much of the game, with time of possession being one of Philadelphia’s strengths.

On the other hand, if the game evolves in to a shoot-out, I would favor Mahomes, Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Kadarius Toney.

DID YOU KNOW: The Eagles Updated Their Team Name Art for 2022?

While some of Philadelphia’s 2017-18 Super Bowl-winning roster remains in place, Kansas City obviously has more recent postseason experience: with five AFC Championship Game and three Super Bowl appearances in five seasons. Mahomes is 1-1 in the Super Bowl so far, and will be looking to add a second Lombardi Trophy to his resume.

If we’re talking straight up rosters, top to bottom, the Eagles do have the edge. But having a quarterback that is already a consensus future Hall-of-Famer in his fifth season gives your team an edge that can’t be quantified in X’s and O’s.

I’m going with the Chiefs, because I believe Patrick Mahomes is the real deal and is due for a Super Bowl breakout party to follow up an embarrassing 33-9 loss to the Buccaneers two seasons ago.

Could I see the Eagles winning? Yes, even handily in some scenarios. But if I had to bet on it, I’m not going against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on this stage, especially after beating a very good Bengals team.

In my head, the game starts with the offenses trading early touchdowns for a 7-7 game. Philadelphia’s offense holds the ball for a couple of long field goal drives and forces the Chiefs to punt in between those scores, giving the Eagles a 13-7 lead at halftime.

But after going three-and-out to start the second half, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense heat up for a long drive of their own, ending in a touchdown pass to Kadarius Toney. On the following drive, a well-intended Hurts pass is tipped for an interception, and Kansas City responds with another touchdown drive to go up 21-13.

Hurts and the Eagles dig deep, convert a couple early fourth downs, and put together a touchdown drive, punching in a score with Miles Sanders. On the ensuing two-point try, how could everyone in the building not see it coming: the Philly Special II. 21-21 in the fourth quarter.

But that would be Philadelphia’s last score, with Mahomes putting seven more pints up before it’s all said and done. The Chiefs win 28-21 and Patrick Mahomes wins his second Super Bowl MVP award.

Chiefs win 28-21, Patrick Mahomes wins Super Bowl MVP




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