Sakmann News, Entertainment and Sports
SNES Blog Network
The 2023 NBA Finals are nearly here, and though the Denver Nuggets had to wait a full week after the completion of their four-game sweep over the Los Angeles Lakers, […]
The 2023 NBA Finals are nearly here, and though the Denver Nuggets had to wait a full week after the completion of their four-game sweep over the Los Angeles Lakers, they finally have their Eastern Conference opponent: the Miami Heat.
It once looked like both Conference Finals series would be swift, with both the Nuggets and Heat up 3-0 over their competition. But the Heat allowed the Boston Celtics to steal not one, not two, but three games before holding on to win a decisive Game 7 in Boston.
Now, the Heat are in the NBA Finals for the second time in four seasons and the seventh time since 2006, seeking their fourth title in that span. The Nuggets of course have never been to the the NBA Finals in their last 46 seasons of play, and will look to hoist their first Larry O’Brien Trophy.
For more scene-setting and how these two teams got here, check out my previous articles:
The Denver Nuggets have been a well-oiled machine this season, held together by two-time (should be three-time) NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets finished 53-29, the best record in a competitive Western Conference and just five games behind the Milwaukee Bucks for the best record in the NBA. Denver also held the best home mark in the NBA during the regular season at 34-7: and now, the Nuggets hard regular season work has paid off, as Denver has won eight home games in the playoffs.
Heading in to the postseason, it appeared very unlikely the Nuggets would home court advantage in the NBA Finals, with the Bucks, Boston Celtics, and Philadelphia 76ers all holding better records than Denver. But in comes the Miami Heat, losing their first play-in game before bouncing back to fall from a 7th seed to 8th seed in the Eastern Conference.
It didn’t matter. The Heat dispatched the team with the best overall record in the NBA with ease, eliminating Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in just five games. In the second round, the Heat took care of the New York Knicks in six games, and the Celtics eliminated the 76ers in seven games, taking one more team off the board with a better record than the Nuggets.
And then of course in the Eastern Conference Finals, Miami continued to defy the odds. First the Heat stole Game 1, and then secured a 2-0 lead heading to Miami for the first time in the series. After a Game 3 win, it seemed all but certain we would get a Heat-Nuggets Finals, but Boston wouldn’t go away, nearly completing the first 3-0 series comeback in NBA history.
Miami held on to win Game 7 in near wire-to-wire fashion: a testament to the team’s grit and determination when it matters most.
The Denver Nuggets haven’t needed to play in any elimination games this postseason, defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games, the Phoenix Suns in six games, and the Los Angeles Lakers in seven games.
Depending on who you ask, Denver might have an advantage or disadvantage after not playing competitive basketball in over a week prior to Game 1 of the NBA Finals. I’m personally in the advantage camp: sure, the Nuggets flow on the court may have bee disrupted, but the Heat had to play an additional three games, facing a hungry team trying to stave off elimination each time. Miami exerted a ton of physical effort in the Eastern Conference Finals, which I think will play to Denver’s advantage early in the NBA Finals.
And although the Heat could have, should have, would have won Game 6 if not for Derrick White’s game-winning tip-in, Miami is still 1-3 in their last four games with two bad losses in Games 4 and 5.
Every NBA playoff series is more than just star player vs. start player, and both the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat run roughly seven or eight-man rotations where each player brings value to the court. But it’s impossible to dissect this series without highlighting the marquee players on the court: Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler.
As I’ve alluded to, Jokic was the 2022-23 NBA MVP in my eyes, and is coming off back-to-back awards nonetheless. His basketball IQ is off the charts, and Jokic is always there to make the assist, secure the rebound, and score the ball: basically whatever his team needs at that moment. Few players in the league con even slow Jokic down, and while Bam Adebayo presents a formidable opponent as a true center for the Heat, that may only affect Jokic in the paint. Adebayo is a strong rim protector, but can he chase Jokic, one of the best-conditioned players in the league, around the court for 40 minutes a night?
The Heat’s winning game plan starts with limiting Jokic’s production, and well, good luck with that. Even if Miami gets enough defensive pressure on Jokic, that will likely mean leaving Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., or Bruce Brown open. And in another testament to the quality of Denver’s roster, every single one of those players, as well as Jokic himself, are liable to drain open three-pointers.
Denver finished 12th in the league in scoring, with 115.8 PPG, and 8th in league in defense, allowing 112.5 PPG.
Miami does have a stellar defense, allowing 109.8 PPG, the 2nd-fewest in the league. But in somewhat of an anomaly for an NBA Finals Team, the Heat finished dead-last in scoring at 109.5 PPG.
For the Heat to stay in this series, they will have to control the pace of the game and limit Denver’s tempo. If any game turns in to a shootout, it will automatically start to favor the Nuggets.
Butler has carried the Heat through the postseason, just as he did in the team’s 2020 NBA Finals appearance. But as the famous picture of an exasperated Butler shows, one man can not win an NBA Finals by himself (well, maybe LeBron James, but obviously he still had help.)
Butler was putting up 30 shots a game towards the end of the Eastern Conference Finals, and wasn’t exactly connecting on efficient rates. The Nuggets could absolutely live with that kind of offensive game plan from the Heat. For Miami to brew up an upset, Caleb Martin (who exploded in Game 7 of the ECF,) Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love, and Kyle Lowry have to be considered threats on the court, at bare minimum hitting their open shots. Tyler Herro is also expected to return some time in this series for the Heat, which could give them a boost.
The one-two punch of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, two dynamic players who can create offense on the fly, will lay the foundation for the Denver Nuggets. As the Heat adjust defensively to cover these two stars, Denver’s role players will step up in the moment, hit their shots, and keep the Nuggets offense churning.
The Heat won’t be able to keep up with Denver offensively, at least not over a long series, and probably not on the road in Ball Arena. Any path to a Heat championship involves winning games in Denver, where the Nuggets are 8-0 this postseason.
In my prediction, the Nuggets win Games 1 and 2, Miami wins either Game 3 or 4 at home, and then Denver closes out their first-ever NBA Championship in Game 5 at Ball Arena.
A “safer” prediction might be Nuggets in 6: the Heat could definitely win both their home games or even steal a road game. But rather than playing it safe, I’m going with my gut. And remember, even a five-game series can be highly competitive. The Nuggets did sweep the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, but almost every game came down to the final minutes. I expect that in the NBA Finals as well: a short, but highly competitive series.
As far as NBA Finals MVP, the Denver Nuggets would have to drastically alter their playing style, or a player would have to have an unheard of performance, for the award to go to anyone other than Nikola Jokic.
Nuggets win in 5 games, Nikola Jokic wins NBA Finals MVP
Header Photo Credits: NBA, Miami Herald
Be sure to follow Sak Sports Blog on Twitter or on Facebook for more NBA and NFL updates!
Sakmann News, Entertainment and Sports 