2023-24 NFL Predictions: NFC East

The NFC East features some of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL, and last season, not a single team in the division posted a losing record, with three teams qualifying for the postseason.

Of course, that conversation starts with the Philadelphia Eagles, who made it all the way to Super Bowl 57 and very nearly walked away as league champions. The Eagles were dominant behind MVP runner-up Jalen Hurts, and made the leap quickly to become one of the best teams in the NFL. The band is still together, and Philadelphia is favored to run back the NFC East title in 2023-24.

The Dallas Cowboys walked in to last season as the favorite to win the division, and did keep the pressure on Philadelphia all season long: finishing 12-5 to earn the conferences top wildcard berth, just two games behind the Eagles. Longtime running back Ezekiel Elliot is out, but Dak Prescott is still the quarterback: can the Cowboys keep the pressure on the Eagles this season as well?

Coach of the Year Brian Daboll took the New York Giants to the playoffs in his first season with the team: can Daniel Jones and company win even more games this season? And how will the Washington Commanders fare as they usher in the Sam Howell era?

How will the division play out in the 2023-24 season? Read on for my 2023-24 NFC East Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)

Last Year’s Prediction: 9-8, 2nd Place NFC East

Last Year’s Actual: 14-3, 1st Place NFC East

If a play or two broke differently in Super Bowl 57, the Philadelphia Eagles would be defending champions heading in to the 2023-24 season. The 2022-23 Eagles were a 14-3 juggernaut, even more impressive when you consider Philadelphia went 14-1 in the regular season with Jalen Hurts under center. Throw in a 2-1 showing in the postseason, and the Eagles finished last season with an elite 16-2 record when Hurts was their quarterback.

It took me a little while to warm up to the idea of the Eagles as not just an overachiever, but rather one of the best teams in the NFL last season. Heading in to this season, the Eagles have earned my trust, and another NFC East title appears like the overwhelmingly most likely scenario.

Besides Hurts (a great quarterback, but not the league’s most talented,) Philadelphia has a stacked roster from top-to-bottom. Wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith line the outside for Hurts’ offense, while tight end Dallas Goedert provides a valuable security blanket. One of the league’s best offensive lines makes spectacular rushing plays possible for the Eagles: this season, former Lions running back D’Andre Swift will be the lead carrier, and Hurts will certainly get involved himself as well.

There’s talent all over the defensive side of the ball as well, with pass-rushers Brandon Graham, Jalen Carter, Fletcher Cox, and Josh Sweat, linebacker Haason Reddick and secondary coverage from James Bradberry, Darius Slay, Terrell Edmunds, and Reed Blankenship.

I gave the Eagles a 13-4 prediction for this season, simply because projecting another 14-win season would imply almost everything goes perfect. Philadelphia is one of two teams I see vying for the NFC’s #1 seed (along with the San Francisco 49ers,) but I wouldn’t be surprised if one more team ended up in that race. Nevertheless, the Eagles have a shot at earning the #1 seed in the NFC in back-to-back seasons, which would certainly help their cause of reaching back-to-back Super Bowls.

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T-2. New York Giants (10-7)

Last Year’s Prediction: 6-11, 4th Place NFC East

Last Year’s Actual: 9-7-1, 3rd Place NFC East

Reigning Coach of the Year Brian Daboll is helping the New York Giants turn the corner, helping bridge the gap from a half-decade of mediocrity to how a modern NFL team actually looks, plays, and competes. Last year, the Giants squeezed in to the postseason at 9-7-1 despite a revolving door of injuries, particularly at the wide receiver position, giving quarterback Daniel Jones little to work with.

But Daboll found crafty ways to stay in games, giving the Giants a winning record and postseason berth, which New York made the most of: upsetting the Minnesota Vikings to advance to the Divisional Round, before being unfortunately blown out by the eventual NFC champion Eagles.

Jones still isn’t the best quarterback in the league, but Daboll cleaned up the quarterback’s act quite a bit in 2022-23. The offense looks good on paper heading in to 2023-24: with star running back Saquon Barkley set to go, and newly acquired pass-catching tight end Darren Waller ready to stretch the field and add a new wrinkle to the Giants offense. The wide receiver position is still a bit thin at the top (out of Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, and Sterling Shepard, who is really #1?) but is deeper as well, with veteran Cole Beasley on hand to perhaps make the signature difference in the passing game he always does, or at least did in the past.

The Giants defense is young, opportunistic, and learning and improving as well. Kayvon Thibodeaux enters his second season, former Colts linebacker Bobby Okereke should shore up the middle of the field, and newly-acquired LB/S Isaiah Simmons could be a valuable Swiss Army knife for the defense that came at a low cost.

10-7 might not seem like a huge step up, but once I assign a team 11-12 wins, we’re talking about a team that wins far more often than it loses. I think the Giants will have a winning record again in 2023-24 and compete for the postseason, but they play in a tough division and until proven otherwise, might not have the firepower to keep up with some of the league’s most elite teams. NFC East matchups against the Eagles, Cowboys, and even Commanders will be a huge determining factor in New York’s final record and standing.

T-2. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)

Last Year’s Prediction: 11-6, 1st Place NFC East

Last Year’s Actual: 12-5, 2nd Place NFC East

On paper, the Dallas Cowboys look like they should be ahead of the New York Giants. Dallas finished 12-5 last season, and while there’s been some rebranding, such as getting rid of longtime running back Ezekiel Elliot, the offense still shapes up to be a juggernaut again in 2023-24. Dallas scored just 10 points less than the 14-3 Eagles did last season, and scored 102 points more than the Giants.

But I have the Giants and Cowboys finishing with identical 10-7 records in my 2023-24 prediction. I think these two teams will jostle for position all season: specifically, second place in the division, and a fast track to one of the conference’s wildcard positions.

Dak Prescott is still a Top 10 quarterback, but last season wasn’t his finest, with just 23 touchdown passes in 12 games against a career-high 15 interceptions. The running back position is in good hands with Tony Pollard, but Dallas might miss having Pollard come out swinging as the spell back against worn-down defenses,

Speaking of defenses, Dallas has a star-studded cast: defensive ends DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, and cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Trevon Diggs.

The Cowboys will be good again and probably make the playoffs in 2023-24, but I am implying a slight step back. Dallas outscored their opponents by +125 points last season, and essentially, I think that number will shrink this season, resulting in a couple less wins. Can Dallas win 12 games again? Certainly, but beating up on bad teams will only get the Cowboys so far, and four games against the Eagles and Giants already present tough opportunities, before even getting in to the rest of the schedule.

SEE ALSO: QB Trey Lance Traded from 49ers to Cowboys

4. Washington Commanders (6-11)

Last Year’s Prediction: 8-9, 3rd Place NFC East

Last Year’s Actual: 8-8-1, 4th Place NFC East

Last year’s 8-8-1 Washington Commanders were a gritty team, overcoming the odds and injuries to achieve an “even” record and miss the playoffs by just one game. The Commanders were never an opponent that necessarily struck fear in opposing teams, but never the less, the team grinded their way to just as many wins as they had losses last season.

Unfortunately, I think the big, unexpected leap forward has already happened. I just didn’t have enough wins to go around in the NFC for Washington to compete for a wildcard position this season.

The reigns have been handed to former University of North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell. While Howell has talent and upside, growing pains are to be expected in Howell’s sophomore campaign, his first season entering Week 1 as the starting quarterback. Howell has help in the form of running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson, and wide receivers Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel.

Yet somehow, the Commanders offense felt like less than the sum of its parts last season, finishing 24th in points scored. It was the gritty defense, the 7th-stingiest in the NFL in points allowed, that kept the Commanders in games. Pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat don’t want to let opposing passers have any time in the pocket.

The Commanders feel like one of those teams that can hang with any team, on any given Sunday, given the right circumstances. I like the pieces they have, but again, I just don’t have enough wins to hand out to the point where I would see Sam Howell squeezing the Commanders in to the 2023-24 postseason. If I’m wrong, great for Washington.