2023-24 NFL Predictions: AFC West

The AFC West contains the defending Super Bowl champions, teetering on dynasty status, an explosive offensive team that still has a knack for getting outscored when it matters most, a defensive powerhouse with a future Hall of Fame quarterback experiment that hasn’t panned out quite yet, and well, I can’t think of a snappy slogan for the 2023-24 Las Vegas Raiders.

The Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West for seven straight seasons, and are heavy favorites to do so again with Patrick Mahomes’ regular season dominance. The Los Angeles Chargers made the playoffs last season and can do it again this year, but the defense has to step up after blowing a historic lead in the Wildcard round against the Jaguars in January.

The Denver Broncos appeared to go all-in last season, trading for longtime Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. While Denver’s shortcomings weren’t all Wilson’s fault, it’s fair to see Year 1 of the Russell Wilson experience in Denver was nothing short of a disaster. This year, Denver is doubling down, giving up a draft pick in exchange for former New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton. Can Payton put together the pieces that Nathaniel Hackett couldn’t and lead Denver to a winning record?

Lastly, the Las Vegas Raiders have a new look, swapping out quarterback Derek Carr for veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not sure it’s an upgrade, but could the new look lead to new results in Las Vegas?

How will the division play out in the 2023-24 season? Read on for my 2023-24 AFC West Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

Last Year’s Prediction: 12-5, 1st Place AFC West

Last Year’s Actual: 14-3, 1st Place AFC West

While there can be an argument made that the Kansas City Chiefs may get “tired” of playing in the regular season, a condition that could result in an AFC West crown but a non-#1 seed, I think Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes understand the value of earning the conference’s best record: one less postseason game to win, as well as home field advantage throughout the playoffs in one of the loudest stadiums and toughest places for road teams to win in the NFL.

For that reason, I expect the Chiefs to have their foot on the gas all season, finishing with the best record in the NFL once again. Kansas City has won 12 games or more for for five straight seasons and won the AFC West seven straight years. Barring something that prevents Mahomes from taking the field for Kansas City, there’s very little that could stop the Chiefs from winning the division once again.

Last year, the big question was whether or not the Chiefs offense could sustain the loss of one of the best and fastest wide receivers in the game, Tyreek Hill. Kansas City scored 496 points last season, 19 more than the second-place Philadelphia Eagles, so I think it’s fair to say Kansas City’s offense survived. Mahomes is the centerpiece, and the skill position players are merely playing their roles in his offense. That goes for almost everyone except Travis Kelce, a generational tight end talent that secures the Chiefs dominance on the offensive side of the ball.

This year, the Chiefs wide receiver room is the question mark again. Juju Smith-Schuster is gone from the Super Bowl-winning roster, and former New York Giants and Florida Gators wide receiver Kadarius Toney has both injury and personality concerns that may hold him back from being a true number one NFL receiver. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Richie James make up a group of serviceable wideouts, but not necessarily the kind that change the outcome of games.

But once again, I think Mahomes will be able to compensate and lead the Chiefs to another season in the Top 10, Top 5, or even Top 1 in scoring. The defending Super Bowl champions have a mission, and dominating again in the regular season is a key task that could help Kansas City go back-to-back.

SEE ALSO: Ranking the Top 10 Quarterbacks in the NFL Heading In To 2023

2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

Last Year’s Prediction: 10-7, 3rd Place AFC West

Last Year’s Actual: 10-7, 2nd Place AFC West

Last season, just like the season before it, the Los Angeles Chargers finished with a winning record while outscoring their opponents by less than 10 points on the season. In 2022-23, the Chargers scored 391 points and allowed 384: good for the league’s 13th-best offense and 21st-best defense.

It’s a shame because the Chargers emphasized defensive improvement last offseason, acquiring linebacker Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson. The Chargers improved on defense a little, but also regressed on offense slightly, dropping from the 5th-highest scoring team in the league to the 13th.

I expect more of the same in 2023-24: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and company will put up 25-30 points per game, and many weeks, that will be enough to secure victories. But I also expect the Chargers to be on the losing end of more high-scoring shootouts, losing 36-33 to the Chiefs, or something like that.

Unfortunately, Los Angeles has already proven no lead is safe under the watch of their defense, giving up a historic 27-point lead in a playoff loss to the Jaguars last postseason. That’s the kind of loss that can haunt a defense well in to the new season. On the contrary, it could serve as a wake-up call, and help the Chargers from making the same mistake again.

I hope I didn’t sound too pessimistic: the Chargers will be a fun team to watch in 2023-24, and can probably go toe-to-toe with almost anyone on offense. Their ceiling is certainly higher than 10-7, if things go well on the defensive side of the ball, but my realistic expectation is the same finish as last year: whether or not its enough to get in to the postseason again depends on the rest of the AFC.

3. Denver Broncos (7-10)

Last Year’s Prediction: 11-6, 2nd Place AFC West

Last Year’s Actual: 5-12, 4th Place AFC West

Two seasons ago, the Denver Broncos finished 7-10 with a quarterback tandem of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, scoring the 9th-fewest points in the league but remaining competitive with a stingy defense. You would think adding nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson would help flip some of those close games and allowed the Broncos to post a winning record in 2022-23. Instead, the offense continued to stagnate under head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Denver’s defense kept them in games once again, but the Broncos suffered a whopping 11 one-score losses, mostly in low-scoring games.

You could play this game with any team, but if the Broncos offense could have mustered even just a pedestrian 20 points per game, they would have gone 10-7 and likely made the playoffs. Flipping about half, 5 of 11, of those one-score losses, also would have turned the 5-12 Broncos in to a 10-7 Wildcard team.

I’m not trying to make excuses for the Broncos: the team finished 5-12 for a reason. But the underlying roster isn’t bad, the defense refuses to let opponents make the game out of reach, and if Wilson’s offense improves even a little bit, the Broncos could be hovering around .500, maybe even within striking distance of a wildcard position.

The biggest factor in improving the offense as well as flipping those one-score losses is new head coach Sean Payton. Nathaniel Hackett was never fit for the job in Denver, but Payton brings in a generational football mind in an attempt to grab a second Super Bowl win with an undersized quarterback, jut like he did with Drew Brees in New Orleans.

Wide receiver Tim Patrick is tragically out for the season once again, but training camp standout Marvin Mims Jr. may be able to a make a splash alongside Jerry Juedy and Courtland Sutton this season.

Russell Wilson rolls out and completes a deep pass at Broncos Training Camp pic.twitter.com/uKiCOIZBGf
— Sak Sports Blog (@SakSports) August 8, 2023

With everything I’ve said, 7-10 is a pretty safe prediction. Realistically, Denver can “flip” the results of more than just two games from last season, either by scoring more points, grinding out the close games, or both. Eight, nine, or even ten wins isn’t out of thee realm of possibility, but I see Denver taking at lest a small step forward in 2023-24.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (5-12)

Last Year’s Prediction: 8-9, 4th Place AFC West

Last Year’s Actual: 6-11, 3rd Place AFC West

The Las Vegas Raiders have a collection of decent-to-good players, but lack the direction and focus needed from an organizational standpoint to compete in the NFL this season. First and foremost, the quarterback situation. Derek Carr is a borderline Top 10 passer in my book, and even a true Top 10 passer in a lot of other peoples books. Carr was not the reason the Raiders struggled last season. This made his benching and subsequent release puzzling to me. What’s left? Well, the Raiders scooped up former 49ers and Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The good news is, Garoppolo is a natural winner, going 40-17 in the regular season a starter and even 4-2 in the postseason, with a Super Bowl appearance. The bad news is, Garoppolo isn’t exactly the kind of quarterback that elevates your offense: he certainly felt “game manager”-esque on a loaded San Francisco offense.

Garoppolo will have great offensive support in Las Vegas as well: including Davante Adams, one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, and Josh Jacobs, a workhorse, multi-faceted running back. But there’s not a ton of depth around them, and opposing defenses may be able to keep Las Vegas’ aerial attack at bay, especially if Garoppolo struggles to get hot outside of the Davante Adams connection.

Defensively, there’s a lot of guys on the roster that all 31 other NFL teams would be lucky to have: defensive ends Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, defensive backs Marcus Peters and Marcus Epps. But as a unit, the Raiders defense needs to step up to defend high-powered offenses in the division, such as as Kansas City’s and Los Angeles’.

I don’t think the Raiders will be abysmal, they have a little too much talent for that. But it feels like a transition year, and I don’t see Las Vegas ever being in any realistic playoff conversations. Best-case scenario, the Raiders are able to leap frog the Broncos and finish 3rd in the AFC West again this season.