2023-24 NFL Predictions: AFC East

The AFC East has one team that has established regular season dominance over the past few seasons, but this year, potentially up to three Super Bowl contenders.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East in three consecutive seasons, winning 13 games twice in that stretch. While the Bills don’t have a Super Bowl appearence to show for it just yet, Buffalo has been one of the best teams in the AFC for three straight seasons.

But the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins could be on their heels in 2023-24. The Jets went 7-10 last season despite some of the worst quarterback play in the league: maybe future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers could clean things up just enough to make New York a playoff team? The Dolphins went 9-8 last year with a revolving door at the quarterback position: could some consistency this season push Miami from a wildcard team to a division contender?

And do the New England Patriots have what it takes to compete in this loaded division, or will they be the odd team out at the end of the season?

How will the division play out in the 2023-24 season? Read on for my 2023-24 AFC East Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

1. Buffalo Bills (12-5)

Last Year’s Prediction: 13-4, 1st AFC East

Last Year’s Actual: 13-3*, 1st AFC East

For the past four seasons, the Buffalo Bills have consistently been one of the best teams in football. There’s a lot of people to thank for that, but having Josh Allen at quarterback seems to have been the missing that pushed Buffalo from an on-the-cusp, underdog franchise, to one of the league’s most successful teams.

Buffalo has made the playoffs four straight seasons, going 10-6 (Wildcard berth) in 2019-20, 13-3 (AFC East winner) in 2020-21, 11-6 (AFC East Winner) in 2021-22, and 13-3 again (AFC East Winner) in 2022-23. With a signature ground and pound running game, a smash mouth defense, and a star quarterback in Allen, the Bills can and have taken on virtually every challenge their opponents have thrown at them.

The Bills do, however, have a timing issue: Buffalo hasn’t been able to find that road win in Arrowhead Stadium or big win in a shootout come January. A team this good for this long should probably have at least a Super Bowl appearance by now. I don’t even fault the Bills entirely, I really do see it as bad timing, but eventually Allen and the Bills need to appear in if not win a Super Bowl to cement their legacy as a powerhouse franchise of this era of football.

I think the Bills are capable of another 13+ win season, but I give them a slightly more modest 12-5 projection with increased competition within the AFC East. Four games against the Jets and Dolphins, and to some extent even two against the Patriots, will all be tough matchups for Buffalo. I think the Bills will vie for the AFC’s #1 seed, and they could get it even at 12-5 with the right tiebreakers, but ultimately a strong slate of opponents might keep Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the Bills in the Wildcard Round again this season.

2. New York Jets (11-6)

Last Year’s Prediction: 6-11, 4th Place AFC East

Last Year’s Actual: 7-10, 4th Place AFC East

Let’s start here: the New York Jets finished 7-10 last season with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL, and scored a measly 17.4 points per game. To make matters worse, the Jets dropped their final six games after a 7-4 start: even a mediocre 33% win rate in those six games probably would have pushed the Jets through to the playoffs.

Now enter Aaron Rodgers. While I think Rodgers still has the talent and skills to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in 2023-24, he doesn’t even have to be nearly that good for New York. Half decent, middle-of-the-road, just above competent play at the quarterback position is all this Jets team needed last season to make the postseason.

Rodgers didn’t have a great season in his final year with the Green Bay Packers, but even if the veteran passer can just be a glorified facilitator, weapons like Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman Jr., Randall Cobb, Michael Carter, an eventually-returning sophomore running back Breece Hall, the offense should be able to churn pretty well.

On defense, a talented group including DT’s Quinnen Williams and Solomon Thomas, DE Carl Lawson, LB C.J. Mosley, CB Sauce Gardner should be able to repeat or improve upon the 18.6 points per game they allowed last season. If Rodgers’ offense only has toput up 20-24 points to win on any given week, the Jets could enjoy a highy successful season.

The final X-factor is Rodgers’ play itself. So far, I’ve only assumed average play from the longtime Packers QB. But what if Rodgers goes above and beyond? The Jets ceiling would be much higher, and I’m not even quiet sure how high.

But tempering expectations, I think the Jets take at tangible leap forward, both in the win column and in their overall competiveness week-in and week-out. I have the Jets finishing second in the AFC East and earning a wildcard spot in a year where 11 wins may be necessary to get in to the postseason. If the Bills slip up, the AFC East could be ripe for the taking, but the Dolphins are also a real threat to leap frog New York. All in all, it should be a fun race that comes down to the wire.

SEE ALSO: Ranking the Top 10 Quarterbacks in the NFL Heading In To 2023

3. Miami Dolphins (10-7)

Last Year’s Prediction: 9-8, 3rd Place AFC East

Last Year’s Actual: 9-8, 3rd Place AFC East

Putting the Miami Dolphins in third place at 10-7 is tough, because this team is so talented and already went 9-8 last season. But just like the Jets and Bills, wins will come at a premium in heated AFC East contests. Miami would be the best team in a few divisions: the AFC South, NFC North, and NFC South, in my opinion. But with some staunch competition in their own division, the Dolphins could end up a third-place team, fighting for an AFC wildcard spot.

If Tua Tagovailoa can stay on the field, the Dolphins should be able to hit their stride again in 2023-24. Miami looked like one of the best teams in the league in the early going last season, with the Tyreek Hill–Jaylen Waddle pairing proving to be a highly successful tandem. Throw in a strong defense, and the Dolphins were outdueling the best of them, including their rival Bills. Tua is an above average quarterback, but the most important part of the former Alabama quarterback staying on the field is consistency, something Miami lacked last season.

Miami’s offense certainly deserves attention, featuring Raheem Mostert, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Braxton Berrios, and elite left tackle Terron Armstead, in addition to Tagovailoa, Hill, and Waddle. The defense is just as star-studded, with Jerome Baker and Bradley Chubb holding the inside linebacker spots, Xavien Howard and Eli Apple on the outside corners, and safeties DeShon Elliot and Jevon Holland holding don the secondary.

Third place is the floor for this talented Dolphins team, and an AFC East crown is certainly not out of reach. Heck, Miami is probably on a short list of teams that actually has the talent on both sides of the ball to potentially win a Super Bowl. Best case scenario, the Dolphins win the AFC East and get a home playoff game or two. “Worst case” scenario (not record-wise but situation-wise”,) Miami finishes with a Top 5 record in the AFC but still only earns the 6th or 7th seed in the playoffs, again by virtue of the strong division the play in.

4. New England Patriots (6-11)

Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Last Year’s Prediction: 8-9, 3rd Place AFC East

Last Year’s Actual: 8-9, 3rd Place AFC East

In the 2021-22 season, a Mac Jones-led New England Patriots team went toe-to-toe with the Bills in the AFC East standings all the way down to the wire, finishing just one game behind Buffalo in the NFL’s first-ever 17-game season. Last year, New England finished 8-9, stumbling at times and even performing better under Bailey Zappe with Jones sidelined due to injury.

In 2023-24, I see the Patriots taking another step back, earning their worst record in the post-Tom Brady era.

Jones is a serviceable quarterback, nothing more, nothing less. New England has a decent group of wide receivers: new addition JuJu Smith-Schuster (who should be an interesting personality to either mesh or clash with Bill Belichick), DeVante Parker, and Kendrick Bourne, along with tight end Hunter Henry. Again, serviceable guys, but I’m not sure they’re the receivers that will elevate Jones’ game.

The Patriots did pick up unon Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham, which could be an interesting experiment for Belichick if he ever sees the field. Cunningham never lived up to Lamar Jackson’s level of play at Louisville, so expecting anything similar to the Ravens quarterback in the NFL would be foolish, but Cunningham has been dubbed kind of a “Lamar Jackson-lite.” Not quite as fully featured, but if Belichick can find a way to incorporate Cunningham’s skillset in to his offense, it could go a long way in modernizing New England’s game plan.

Barring a huge surprise, the AFC East looks like a three-team race this upcoming season, and the Patriots are not set to be a part of it.