2023-24 NFL Predictions: NFC North

The NFC North has been run largely by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers for the past 15 or so seasons. There’s been other challengers, such as the Minnesota Vikings, who have won the division a couple times in recent years, including a 13-4 campaign last season.

But Rodgers is gone, skipping town for the New York Jets just like Brett Favre before him. What he leaves is a division with tons of questions. Will the Green Bay Packers be able to stay competitive with Jordan Love at quarterback? Will Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions continue their upward climb and make the postseason in 2023-24? Will the Chicago Bears bounce back from an injury-riddled season and finally start flourishing in the Justin Fields era? And while the Minnesota Vikings are returning many players from last year’s 13-win team, could losing some of their heart (Davin Cook, Adam Thielen) affect their chances at a division title?

How will the division play out in the 2023-24 season? Read on for my 2023-24 NFC North Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

1. Detroit Lions (10-7)

Last Year’s Prediction: 6-11, 3rd Place NFC North

Last Year’s Actual: 9-8, 2nd Place NFC North

Last season, the Detroit Lions took a step forward, nearly made the playoffs, and had the sweet opportunity to keep their division rival Green Bay Packers out of the postseason with a Week 18 win.

Dan Campbell’s Lions are on the rise, and Detroit was a scary team towards the end of last season. The Lions do most of their damage on offense. Jared Goff may not be a Top 10 quarterback, but he’s way more than a game manager, and the offense flows through him. Weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Marvin Jones Jr. make Goff’s job easier, and newly drafted do-it-all rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs could really take the offense to the next level.

A scrappy defensive unit starts with Aidan Hutchinson, wreaking havoc on the defensive line. While Detroit’s defense isn’t littered with Pro Bowlers, Campbell makes the most of his unit. Still, only three teams allowed more points than the Lions last season, and the defense will have to improve for Detroit to be a truly competitive team.

In a best-case scenario, the Lions lead the NFC North wire-to-wire, and finish with 11 or 12 wins, something that would honestly feel a bit foreign for the franchise. Realistically, 10 wins sounds like a good starting point, but Detroit could improve that record with a stronger showing against the league’s best teams.

Standing in the way between the Lions and an NFC North title are the Vikings, as well as themselves. Minnesota won 13 games last season, something Detroit may not be equipped to achieve yet. Additionally, while the Lions are on a solid upward trend, they are ultimately responsible for keeping that trend going.

2. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

Last Year’s Prediction: 10-7, 2nd Place NFC North

Last Year’s Actual: 13-4, 1st Place NFC North

Two seasons ago, the Minnesota Vikings finished 8-9 with a whopping eight one-score losses. Last season, the Vikings flipped the script, winning their close games this time around en route to a superb 13-4 record, before falling to the Giants in the first round of the playoffs.

This season, I think the Vikings don’t find themselves as fortunate, slipping back to a near-.500 record.

T.J. Hockenson should continue to do damage for the Vikings offense after coming over from Detroit last season, and Justin Jefferson is a game-breaking wide receiver. Kirk Cousins may not be “elite,” but he’s one of the the NFL’s most consistent passers. The Vikings should be in most of the games they play this season because of this, and a couple close wins could easily flip this 9-win prediction in to a division-winning 11-win team.

Minnesota did let two longtime mainstays on the offense walk in the off-season: running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Adam Thielen. While the losses themselves might not be felt immediately, I’m just not sure the Vikings will have the same culture over the course of an entire season, and as mentioned earlier, having the same luck as 2022-23 is unlikely as well.

I’ll admit, 9-8, missing the playoffs might be a little harsh for this Vikings team, but I can’t just go with the grain on every prediction. Minnesota is essentially my pick for a playoff team from last season that will take a step back.

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3. Chicago Bears (7-10)

Last Year’s Prediction: 4-13, 4th Place NFC Noth

Last Year’s Actual: 3-14, 4th Place NFC North

Last season, the Chicago Bears simply didn’t give Justin Fields an incredible roster to work with. Throw in some injuries, and the late 2022-23 Bears team barely stood a chance against anyone. Luckily, the NFL has mechanisms in place for teams like this: namely the NFL Draft and free agency. And the Bears were extremely active in both this offseason.

Instead of using the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Bears gave the opportunity to select first overall to the Carolina Panthers: in exchange for a slew of picks (as well as wide receiver D.J. Moore), who will help Chicago build from the bottom up. Other additions, like veteran pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue, will help Chicago’s defense get back to something opposing teams don’t want to see.

Fields will have better support on both sides of the ball, and I fully expect the former Ohio State quarterback to make a patented Year 3 jump. If Fields doesn’t improve, or worse, regresses, then the Bears could be in line for a top pick once again.

It would take an incredible leap for the Bears to make the playoffs in 2023-24, but I do see them making a significant step forward: from the worst team in the league, to an almost .500, maybe make a little noise at the end of the season if everyone else in the division struggles kind of team.

4. Green Bay Packers (5-12)

Last Year’s Prediction: 11-6, 1st Place NFC North

Last Year’s Actual: 8-9, 3rd Place NFC North

The Green Bay Packers finished 8-9 last season in Aaron Rodgers’ final season with the team, missing the playoffs after a Week 18 loss to the Lions. And if we’re being honest, it was an ugly, uncharacteristic 8-9, with Green Bay’s offense failing to establish any kind of rhythm over the course of the season.

With Rodgers out and Jordan Love in at quarterback, will the offense be better in 2023? That’s pretty unlikely. Yes, Green Bay’s offense has great pieces like wide receiver Christian Watson and running back Aaron Jones. But if Rodgers was only putting up a middle-of-the-pack 21.8 points per game last season, again, how can we expect Love to do any better in his first season as an NFL starter?

Best-case scenario, Love is better than we think, the Packers win some scrappy games, and Green Bay improves to 9-8, maybe squeaking in to the playoffs. I could also see a more mediocre finish, say 7-10. But my official prediction is that the Packers will struggle, enduring one of their most trying seasons in decades. While not quite worst team in the league material, I could see the Packers picking in the Top Five of the 2024 NFL Draft.