2023-24 NFL Predictions: AFC South

The AFC South didn’t have very juicy storylines heading in to last season, with the back-to-back division champion Tennessee Titans presumed to take the crown for the third season in a row, and a Matt Ryan-led Indianapolis Colts team potentially on their tail. But between a Tennessee collapse (losing seven straight games to end the season) and the emergence of a young Jacksonville Jaguars team, the mold was broke, and Trevor Lawrence led the Jaguars to the postseason, where they would even win a game over the Los Angeles Chargers.

In 2023-24, I see the same two teams vying for the AFC South lead: the Jaguars and Titans. The roles of favorite and underdog are reversed from last season, with the Jaguars expected to repeat if not build upon last year’s success, and with the Titans seeming to fall out of favor.

The division’s other two teams, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, might not be playoff-ready just yet (though again, surprises happen every year) but feature two of the top three quarterbacks selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud will try to re-ignite the Texans offense, while Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson will look to be the Colts next franchise quarterback: after seven straight seasons of different Week 1 quarterbacks.

Will Lawrence and the Jaguars improve on last year’s surprising success? Can the Titans reclaim the division crown? Will the Colts or Texans shock the NFL and get to the postseason with their rookie quarterbacks?

How will the division play out in the 2023-24 season? Read on for my 2023-24 AFC South Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)

Last Year’s Prediction: 4-13, 3rd Place AFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 9-8, 1st Place AFC South

Out of all 32 teams, I think my prediction for the Jacksonville Jaguars last season was my most inaccurate. I wasn’t sold on Trevor Lawrence taking a jump in Year 2. I wasn’t sold on the Jaguars’ free agency spending spree, and I thought that Jacksonville overpaid the wrong guys in an attempt to improve their offense.

Man was I wrong.

Following a 4-8 start, things started to click for Jacksonville. The Jaguars won the AFC South by virtue of five straight wins, including a win-or-go-home Week 18 victory over the Titans, and then took it a step further with a wildcard win over the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence took that jump in Year 2, ascending to Top 10 quarterback status early in his career. The Jaguars scored the 10th-most points in the NFL, while allowing the 12th-least thanks to a smash mouth, turnover-hungry defense.

This season, I’m not underestimating the Jaguars again: I think Jacksonville will ride the success they had in the final months of the 2022-23 season in to the 2023-24 one.

That means a hotter start, a little more consistency, and beating the opponents they’re “supposed to,” which may just include all 6 AFC South matchups. The Jaguars won’t be clawing their way in to the playoffs in head coach Doug Pederson’s second season: the AFC South could be locked up a couple weeks early, and the Jaguars will be more worried about fighting for higher seeding in the final weeks of the season.

2. Tennessee Titans (7-10)

Last Year’s Prediction: 9-8, 2nd Place AFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 7-10, 2nd Place AFC South

The Tennessee Titans won the AFC South in back-to-back seasons and even have an AFC Championship appearance in recent memory. Unfortunately, it looks like Tennessee peaked a season or two ago, and while the team should still be competitive in 2023-24, I don’t expect the Titans to be in playoff position this time around.

First and foremost, the quarterback situation is confusing. Was Ryan Tannehill ever the best quarterback in the league? No, but he just worked for Tennessee, far better than he did during his time as a Miami Dolphin. Tannehill may have been a glorified game manager, but if that was his role, he executed it well. Then the Titans draft Malik Willis, who in a best-case scenario, could modernize the Titans offense a little. No harm in that persay, as every team needs a succession plan and serviceable backups. But then in the 2023 NFL Draft, Tennessee took Kentucky QB Will Levis with more apparent holes to fill in the roster.

The Titans did add star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who will certainly be a go-to target for whoever is playing quarterback in Tennessee (Tannehill does slot in as the Week 1 starter.) Derrick Henry remains one of the best running backs in the game, and his mere presence on the field creates headaches for opposing defensive coordinators.

But outside of that, if defenses can minimize the impact of Hopkins and Henry, the Titans don’t have a lot of other ways to beat you. At their best, the Titans grab an early lead and then just wear out their opponents, winning games with 17-20 points. Can that formula work again this season? Perhaps, but I just can’t see it result in Tennessee winning more than 50% of their games.

SEE ALSO: Ranking the Top 10 Quarterbacks in the NFL Heading In To 2023

3. Indianapolis Colts (6-11)

Last Year’s Prediction: 11-6, 1st Place AFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 4-12-1, 3rd Place AFC South

I previously said my Jaguars prediction in 2022 was my worst, but it looks like my Indianapolis Colts prediction was off by even more wins: I had Indy winning the division at 1-1-6, when in reality, the Colts were in competition for the worst record in the league at 4-12-1.

For a team that was a win away from the playoffs in 2021-22 with Carson Wentz at the helm, I was shocked. I didn’t think Matt Ryan had to do anything flashy with this well-rounded roster. But the offense just couldn’t get going, leaving the defense helpless to try and keep up.

This season, I have pretty low expectations for Florida QB Anthony Richardson. This isn’t a slight: I just think his game might not immediately transfer to the NFL. The Colts still have a good amount of pieces on their roster, but in today’s NFL, not necessarily the spots that matter.

That is, of course, besides Jonathan Taylor, who we’ll just assume suits up for the Colts in 2023 for the sake of argument. But even Taylor, who led the league in rushing just two seasons ago, can’t be relied on to carry the team in 2023. And if Taylor’s holdout continues in to the season, the Colts win total could definitely suffer.

Overall, I think the Colts take a step forward in 2023-24 and win a few more games than they did last season. Richardson will get some valuable experience under his belt, and then maybe the Colts can compete in 2024-25.

4. Houston Texans (4-13)

Last Year’s Prediction: 3-14, 4th Place AFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 3-13-1, 4th Place AFC South

The Houston Texans nabbed Ohio State standout quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Stroud fits the mold of the modern NFL quarterback: strong-armed, mobile, and versatile. Unfortunately, despite a sizeable draft haul that should pay dividends over the next two to five years, the Houston Texans roster just isn’t built to keep up with that of the other 31 teams in the NFL.

Stroud is an upgrade over Davis Mills on paper, but he simply won’t have the tools to put up an especially impressive rookie campaign whether its wide receiver, offensive line, or defense, there are areas of the field that need improvement no matter who the quarterback is.

While I was pretty off on the other thee teams in this division last season, I was spot-on in predicting the Texans win total last season: 3. In a best-case scenario, some of Houston’s defensive studs like Derek Stingley Jr. could pan out early, and the Texans could win some stingy games, perhaps finishing with up to six wins. But the way I see it, the ceiling is pretty low in Houston, and last year’s record isn’t even the floor.