2023-24 NFL Predictions: AFC North

Steelers-Ravens. Bengals-Browns. And every combination in-between. The AFC North has some of the most historic rivalries in football, and for that reason alone, this division is always interesting and difficult project.

The AFC North is always a gritty division, where these four rivals play each other with everything they have no matter what the record is. Last season was no different, with all four teams going 3-3 in intradivisional play.

The Cincinnati Bengals have to be the de facto favorite, winning the division last season and appearing in a Super Bowl two seasons ago. Joe Burrow and company have been one of the best teams in the AFC in back-to-back seasons, and will look to continue rolling in 2023-24.

When Lamar Jackson is on the field, the Baltimore Ravens are dominant as well, so if Jackson can stay healthy over 17 games, Baltimore could reach new heights with a strong cast of supporting weapons including Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers.

The Cleveland Browns have an all-star roster on both sides of the ball, but need a stronger showing from Deshaun Watson to compete and claw their way back out of last place. Can they do it in Year 2, the first full year, of the Deshaun Watson experience?

And while the Pittsburgh Steelers might not jump off the page, they nearly stole a wildcard spot last season. Can the Steelers squeeze their way in to the postseason in Kenny Pickett’s second season with Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh?

How will the division play out in the 2023-24 season? Read on for my 2023-24 AFC North Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

1. Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)

Last Year’s Prediction: 11-6, 2nd Place AFC North

Last Year’s Actual: 12-4*, 1st Place AFC North

The Cincinnati Bengals dominated in the 2022-23 regular season with a 12-4 record and an AFC North crown, and nearly represented the AFC in the Super Bowl for a second straight season. Already a Top 5 Quarterback in the NFL, Joe Burrow leads one of the NFL’s best offenses, surrounded by talent such as Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon.

The Bengals defense was even more elite last season. Cincinnati ranked 8th in points scored and 5th in points allowed over 16 games last year. The lethal combo of one of the NFL’s most ready-to-pounce offenses and a stingy, talented defense has quickly made the Bengals one of the scariest teams in the NFL.

Can the Bengals keep it up and make another deep run in 2023-24? I certainly think so. Reinforcements include former Chiefs offensive lineman Orlando Brown and 2023 NFL draftees Myles Murphy (EDGE, Clemson) and D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan.)

The only thing stopping the Bengals from winning the AFC North is season is divisional play itself. Cincinnati went 3-3 in the division last season (as all four teams did) to earn three of their four total losses in the regular season within the AFC North. If Cincinnati drops more than one game outside of the AFC North this season, a 3-3 record within the division might hold Cincinnati back from an elite record. But as it stands, the Bengals are not only the frontrunner for the AFC North, but one of the few teams that could claim the #1 seed in the AFC.

2. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

Last Year’s Prediction: 12-5, 1st Place AFC North

Last Year’s Actual: 10-7, 2nd Place AFC North

The Baltimore Ravens have talent across many positions, and remained competitive (even if the result was usually a loss) with their starting quarterback sidelined towards the end of last season, a situation the team dealt with for the second season in a row. Football isn’t a one-man sport, and the Ravens are not a one-trick pony.

But it’s hard to say Baltimore doesn’t live and die by star quarterback Lamar Jackson’s availability.

With Jackson back on the field in September, this Ravens team will have a chance to be special, in a best-case scenario, potentially compete for and win the AFC North. Jackson has been a Top 10 quarterback for a few seasons now, perhaps in spite of the talent the Ravens organization has put around him.

But this year’s roster is star-studded, if not a little reliant on players returning from injuries. That would be running back J.K. Dobbins and veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.. Jackson also has Rashod Bateman, tight end Mark Andrews, and first round pick Zay Flowers out of Boston College, along with fellow speedy wide receiver Laquon Treadwell.

After bolstering the defensive side of the ball as well in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Ravens are locked and loaded to compete. My 11-6 prediction is certainly playing it on the safe side, and possibly accounting for Jackson to miss a couple games once again, if not one of his key weapons missing a couple games as well. Again, in a best-case scenario, the Ravens could leapfrog the Bengals, especially if they can beat Cincinnati twice head-to-head.

SEE ALSO: Ranking the Top 10 Quarterbacks in the NFL Heading In To 2023

3. Cleveland Browns (8-9)

Last Year’s Prediction: 7-10, 3rd Place AFC North

Last Year’s Actual: 7-10, 4th Place AFC North

The Cleveland Browns are not an untalented team. Nick Chubb is one of the most productive running backs in the NFL. Wide receivers Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones headline an interesting receiver room. And on the defensive side of the ball, there’s tons of secondary talent (Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II) and heavy hitters up front (Myles Garrett, Za’Darius Smith), resulting in one of the best defensive units in the league.

And yet I’m still not sold on the Browns, probably due to Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Watson was elite in Houston, leading the league in passing yards and yards per attempt with a laser-accurate 70.2% completion rating in his final season with the Texans. After a lengthy susepnesion, Watson looked rusty in his first season in Cleveland to say the least.

Watson went a respectable 3-3 over six starts, but completed just 58.2% of his passes, a career-low, with a paltry 6,5 yards per attempt, also a career-low. Watson also threw just seven touchdowns against five interceptions, after throwing just seven interceptions over a full 16 games in his last Texans season.

Watson will have to return to Pro Bowl form, otherwise, the Browns are just a loose collection of talented players with no real direction forward. Can the Browns post a winning record and make the playoffs? Certainly, as a 10-7 or even 11-6 wildcard contender. But could I also see the Browns crashing and burning early, and struggling to recover for the rest of the season? Yes, I could see that as well, with a finish as poor as 6-10 possible.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10)

Last Year’s Prediction: 6-11, 4th Place AFC North

Last Year’s Actual: 9-8, 3rd Place AFC North

The Pittsburgh Steelers also aren’t a bad team, but when handing out the 272 wins available to the 32 NFL teams, I just didn’t have a ton to give Mike Tomlin’s team.

But hey, I was wrong last season: predicting a 6-11 record, when in reality the Steelers challenged for a playoff spot at 9-8 in Kenny Pickett’s rookie season.

The Steelers approach the field with a more classic NFL formula: pound the rock and play strong defense. There’s absolutely no reason this strategy can’t work in 2023-24: even if it is unique in today’s NFL landscape. But just because it can succeed, doesn’t mean it will. There are teams that will still be able to put up 25+ points on the Steelers defense, and the offense will have to find some way to retaliate. I give Pittsburgh a slightly more respectable 7-10 prediction this season, but I just don’t think they have the firepower to keep up with some of the AFC’s loaded offenses. Running back Najee Harris is certainly a standout, but he can’t carry the team alone.

7-10 for a last place team wouldn’t be bad, and it would be a testament to the competiveness of the AFC North.