Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: 2024 Round 2 Playoff Prediction

Two of the best teams in not just the Western Conference, but the entire NBA will take the court in the Western Conference Semifinals starting on Saturday, May 4. The defending NBA champions and second-seeded Denver Nuggets will host the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves finished just a game behind the Nuggets in the regular season standings, battling for both the Northwest Division as well as the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Out of the three-team race, which included the Oklahoma City Thunder, who ultimately claimed the top seed, the Timberwolves drew the shortest straw, finishing as the third seed despite a stellar 56-26 regular season.

But Anthony Edwards, Karl Anthony-Towns, Rudy Gobert, and company made short work of their first round matchup, the Phoenix Suns. Despite Phoenix’s phenomenal big three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal, the Suns failed to win a game, with the Timberwolves completing their first postseason sweep in franchise history.

The Nuggets had to sweat the first round matchup just a bit more, defeating the Los Angeles Lakers in five games, which required two game-winning shots from Jamal Murray at Ball Arena.

SEE ALSO: Jamal Murray Made Another Shot: Nuggets Dispatch Lakers in Five Games to Advance to Second Round

Denver and Minnesota met in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, with the Nuggets advancing in five games en route to their first ever NBA championship. Much like this year’s series against the Lakers, it was a competitive series, despite what the short series length might suggest.

The Nuggets and Timberwolves split their regular season series 2-2, with each team winning a home game and road game. Denver won most recently, with a 116-107 win at Ball Arena on April 10 that briefly gave the Nuggets the top seed in the Western Conference.

SEE ALSO: Nuggets Claim 1st Seed in West, Beat Timberwolves 116-107 in Home Regular Season Finale

The winner of this second round series will advance to the Western Conference Finals, as either the road team against the top-seeded Thunder or the host-team against the winner of the Los Angeles Clippers-Dallas Mavericks series.

The Matchup

(Anthony Edwards by Christian Petersen/Getty Images | Nikola Jokic by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

The Denver Nuggets roll out the same starting five that gave their city its first-ever professional basketball championship: crafty playmaker Jamal Murray, defensive stopper and sharp-shooter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, offensive weapon Michael Porter Jr., all-around hustler Aaron Gordon, and of course, soon-to-be three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic.

By the end of the Lakers series, only Reggie Jackson was getting consistent minutes off the bench, with Peyton Watson and Christian Braun’s roles shrinking a little in the big moments.

The Minnesota Timberwolves struggled to keep their entire lineup healthy over the course of the season, but should be good to go in Game 1. Defensive-minded veteran Mike Conley, emerging two-way superstar Anthony Edwards, solid fundamental small forward Jaden McDaniels, feracious big man Karl Anthony-Towns, and three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert are all healthy and ready to go.

Looming on Minnesota’s bench is the versatile Naz Reid, as well as Monte Morris and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

The Nuggets offensive plan is, quite frankly, to execute whatever plan they choose. But few teams have the tools to disrupt a gameplan like the Timberwolves. Anthony-Towns would be relegated to the center position on many modern NBA teams, but being able to play his natural position of power forward next to Gobert is a huge asset on both the offensive and defensive end for the Timberwolves.

Besides big men, Minnesota also has Conley and Edward to throw at Jamal Murray on the defensive end.

Denver will need to play big and protect the paint, relying on Jokic and Gordon to stop Gobert and Anthony-Towns from getting hot. DeAndre Jordan may even see a little more action in this series as Denver throws size at size.

The Timberwolves will largely rely on their offensive superstar, Anthony Edwards, in this series. Caldwell-Pope is an excellent perimeter defender, but Edwards can be found all over the court: every Nuggets player will be tasked with defending Edwards at some point in the game.

Edwards is going to drop 28 to 30 points a night on the Nuggets: that’s okay, as long Minnesota’s big men, McDaniels, or Reid don’t put up monster numbers. But Edwards can easily explode for 40 points or more on any given night: it’s those nights Denver should be worried about.

Anthony-Towns and Gobert won’t be able to stop Jokic from getting points and assists, but they may be able to limit his impact. At that point, it’s on Murray to keep putting up at least 25 points per game, and for players not named Jokic to hit their open shots, particularly three-pointers.

And if Michael Porter Jr. keeps shooting like he did in Round 1, he could be the most important player (if the not the second-most important behind Jokic) in the series for the Nuggets.

Prediction

(AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

Last year, the Nuggets defeated the Timberwolves in five games before beating the Phoenix Suns in six games in the 2023 NBA Western Conference Semifinals. Just as the Nuggets won their opening round series in five games again this season, I expect another six-game series in Round 2 this year.

I would even expect the same series breakdown: last year, the Nuggets took Games 1 and 2 at home against the Suns, and then lost Games 3 and 4 in Phoenix. It was the largest moment of tension in the Nuggets 2023 Championship run: the latest point in a series that they weren’t ahead. Denver then dominated Games 5 and 6 to advance to the Western Conference Finals.

So that’s my prediction for this series as well: the Nuggets will win their first two home games, but this hungry Timberwolves team will roar right back with two home wins of their own. Denver will defend home court in Game 5 at Ball Arena, and then close out the series on the road in Game 6 to prevent a Game 7.

Alternatively, I could see the Nuggets and Timberwolves splitting the first four games of the series but also each stealing a road win, still resulting in a 2-2 series score heading in to Game 5.

If the Timberwolves steal either Game 1 or 2 and win their home Games 3 and 4, Minnesota could put the defending champions in the biggest hole they’ve seen in years: a 3-1 deficit. The Nuggets could hypothetically claw their way back out, especially with Games 5 and 7 being at Ball Arena, but it would be a shocking moment for sure. I don’t anticipate this scenario as the most likely, but it feels worth bringing up, as a sobering reminder as to why its important to win your home games.

I predict Nikola Jokic will average 26.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game in the series, which will seem like pedestrian numbers by the Serbian big man’s own standards. Jamal Murray will be right behind him on the scoring end, with 26.0 points per game, but Michael Porter Jr. will continue his hot-shooting with 24.8 points per game: putting Denver’s offensive Big Three over 75 points per game.

Anthony Edwards will average 32.0 points per game, but won’t have enough consistent offensive support to keep Minnesota’s season alive.

Do you agree or disagree with my prediction? How many games will the series go, and who do you think will win? Be sure to connect with Sak Sports Blog on Twitter or on Facebook to voice your opinion!