Week 12 of the 2023-24 NFL season features all 32 teams back in action, including three Thanksgiving Day matchups, the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game, and some high-stakes matchups on Sunday leading up to a Baltimore Ravens-Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday Night Football matchup.

While the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys matchups should be fun (both are divisional games,) both teams host opponents with losing records: the cream of the crop on Thanksgiving will be the dessert: the 7-3 San Francisco 49ers taking on the 6-4 Seattle Seahawks in the night cap, with first place in the NFC West on the line.

On Sunday, a couple other division leads are on the line. The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons can create a tie for first place with a win at home over the 5-5 New Orleans Saints, and the 6-4 Houston Texans can do the same thing in the AFC South with a win at home over the 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars.

There’s plenty of drama and increasing stakes as the NFL heads into Week 12: things get a little more serious after Thanksgiving, with just six weeks to play after this week’s games are complete.

Read on for my 2023-24 NFL Week 12 Picks, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

Picks Record

Week 11 Picks: 8-4

Week 1: 9-7

Week 2: 12-4

Week 3: 8-8

Week 4: 12-4

Week 5: 7-7

Week 6: 11-4

Week 7: 5-8

Week 8: 11-5

Week 9: 11-3

Week 10: 7-7

Week 11: 8-4

Overall: 101-61 (62%)

Thanksgiving Games

(AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Detroit Lions (8-2): The Detroit Lions have held a decent record heading in to their Thanksgiving Day matchup a couple of times over the past decade, but they’ve never entered their yearly national stage as good as this: 8-2, practically as good as anyone in the NFC so far. And in a more unique rarity for Detroit, they’ll be the easy favorite over Jordan Love and the 4-6 Green Bay Packers. Lions win 31-20

Washington Commanders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3): Just when it looked like the Washington Commanders were inching towards a .500 record and maybe even playoff contention, they fell short to the New York Giants in Week 11. Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are a different beast, and I don’t think Sam Howell and the Commanders will be able to keep up on Thanksgiving afternoon. Cowboys win 38-24

San Francisco 49ers (7-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4): The Seattle Seahawks have won more games than they’ve lost, both this season and over the last two years, but lack the “it” factor that most teams possess on at least one side of the ball. The San Francisco 49ers have that “it” factor on both sides of the ball and should continue to stay on top of the NFC West in this Thanksgiving night matchup, with division standing certainly on the line. 49ers win 27-23

Black Friday Game

(Hawaii Tribune-Herald)

Miami Dolphins (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6): In the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday game, schedule makers obviously anticipated a Tua Tagovailoa-Aaron Rodgers duel. Instead, the New York Jets will roll out Tim Boyle, their third starting quarterback of the season, as they attempt to snap a four-game skid. This Miami Dolphins team likely won’t have any of that. Dolphins win 30-13

Sunday Day Games

(The Falcoholic)

New Orleans Saints (5-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6): Neither team is great here, but both the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons both hold decent records, and the winner of this game will effectively be in 1st place in the NFC South after Week 12. Derek Carr and the Saints have been steadier all season and hold a respectable 3-3 record on the road. Saints win 26-18

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5): I definitely won’t count the Cincinnati Bengals out completely without Joe Burrow: Tyler Browning isn’t going to go winless over the team’s next seven games. If anything, it just about evens the playing field against Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers, especially with the game being played in Cincinnati. I’ll still go with Pittsburgh: give Browning a couple weeks to hit his stride. Steelers win 20-17

Carolina Panthers (1-9) at Tennessee Titans (3-7): Despite these two teams combining for a 4-16 record, there’s still some intrigue. Can Bryce Young earn his second win of the season for the Carolina Panthers, with a relatively softer opponent on the other side? Or will Will Levis, also looking for win #2, pull it off at home, where the Tennessee Titans are actually 3-1? Titans win 24-16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5): The Indianapolis Colts have been refusing to win at home, going just 1-4 at Lucas Oil Stadium as opposed to 4-1 on the road. Competition is obviously a factor too, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a bit of a wildcard. I’ll lean towards Gardner Minshew and a Colts team that is surprisingly figuring things out in Anthony Richardson’s absence, but anything could happen here. Colts win 31-23

New England Patriots (2-8) at New York Giants (3-8): Don’t get me wrong, the New York Giants aren’t very good right now, and despite the cool story, Tommy Devito isn’t your ideal Week 12 starting quarterback. But what I’m getting at is: how are the 2-8 New England Patriots favored on the road here? The Patriots have only surpassed 17 points twice this season, and while Devito’s Giants offense is no juggernaut, they just may be able to outscore New England at home. Giants win 20-17

Sak Sports Game of the Week Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) at Houston Texans (6-4): Who would have thought that in a week that also contains Bills-Eagles and Ravens-Chargers that the highest stakes game would be the 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the 6-4 Houston Texans? C.J. Stroud and the Texans can create a tie for 1st place in the AFC South with a win at home, where they’re 4-1 this season to help propel one of the best stories of the year. But wait, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are 4-0 on the road, and need a win to keep up with the Chiefs and Ravens for the best record in the AFC. The Jaguars are deservedly narrow road favorites, but I think the Texans keep the magic going. Texans win 34-24

Cleveland Browns (7-3) at Denver Broncos (5-5): In another high-stakes AFC matchup, the Denver Broncos are looking for the fifth straight win: one that would officially cement them in the AFC wildcard hunt. It would be even sweeter to block the Cleveland Browns, down Deshaun Watson and now starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson, an eighth win. Unfortunately, I think the Broncos ineffectiveness at advancing the ball down field consistently and scoring off turnovers makes them due for a loss eventually. Browns win 24-20

Los Angeles Rams (4-6) at Arizona Cardinals (2-9): Kyler Murray makes the Arizona Cardinals a watchable team, but the Los Angeles Rams have more talent across the board in this NFC West matchup. Rams win 23-17

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-6): The Las Vegas Raiders have grown to be a pesky team, but after a heartbreaking loss to the Eagles last week in a Super Bowl 57 rematch, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will be eager to get back on the board with a win in Vegas. Chiefs win 30-20

Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1): On paper, this is a super fun one and almost earned my Game of the Week honors. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen going blow-for-blow, two smashmouth defense attempting to create that big turnover. But the 2023 Buffalo Bills don’t feel like the same team that we got pretty consistently for two or three seasons prior. This team makes little mistakes, and Josh Allen (as well as his receivers, to be fair) is responsible for a number of turnovers. The Eagles will take full advantage of any mistakes, likely turning them in to a full seven points. Eagles win 35-20

SEE ALSO: Post-Week 11 Power Rankings

Sunday Night Football

(BaltimoreRavens.com)

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6): Losing Mark Andrews will hurt the Baltimore Ravens, and Odell Beckham Jr. is also banged up after recently emerging as a bigger part of the offense. Luckily, the Ravens offense is a little deeper this season, and Lamar Jackson is playing some great football. The Los Angeles Chargers are certainly more desperate for a win, but have underwhelmed on both sides of the ball this year, despite usually having a stellar offense led by Justin Herbert. The Chargers defense won’t be able to keep Los Angeles in the game at home, where they’re just 2-3. Ravens win 35-24

Monday Night Football

(Wikipedia)

Chicago Bears (3-8) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5): Coming off a narrow Sunday Night Football loss to a surging Broncos team on the road, Joshua Dobbs and the Minnesota Vikings should see better results against the 3-8 Chicago Bears (1-5 on the road) at home on Monday Night Football. Vikings win 31-17

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Header Photo Credit: Baltimore Ravens.com

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