NFL 2023: Week 18 Picks

The 2023-24 NFL regular season comes down to this: Week 18. With division titles and playoff seeding on the line, as well as the chance for division rivals to play spoiler against playoff-hopeful opponents, there’s plenty of drama all around the league on Saturday and Sunday.

Read on for my 2023-24 NFL Week 18 Picks, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter.

Picks Record

Week 1: 9-7

Week 2: 12-4

Week 3: 8-8

Week 4: 12-4

Week 5: 7-7

Week 6: 11-4

Week 7: 5-8

Week 8: 11-5

Week 9: 11-3

Week 10: 7-7

Week 11: 8-4

Week 12: 11-5

Week 13: 7-6

Week 14: 6-9

Week 15: 11-5

Week 16: 10-6

Week 17: 11-5

Overall: 150-96 (61%)

Saturday Games

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-3): The Baltimore Ravens have locked up the AFC’s #1 seed and essentially have nothing to play for, while Mike Tomlin’s 9-7 Pittsburgh Steelers have everything to play for. Even so, I think Baltimore’s backups will make Pittsburgh sweat a bit, given the divisional rivalry. Steelers win 17-16

Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-7): Both of these AFC South teams exceeded expectations in 2023, but neither are playing their best football right now. It’s a toss-up, and while Gardner Minshew, Jonathan Taylor, and the Indianapolis Colts have homefield advantage, the Houston Texans have a healthy quarterback of the future: C.J Stroud, while Anthony Richardson unfortunately remains sidelined for the Colts. Texans win 24-20

Sunday Games

Cleveland Browns (11-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-8): Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns would benefit from a win over the recently eliminated Cincinnati Bengals, in the case that Buffalo wins the AFC East on Sunday Night. Browns win 27-13

Minnesota Vikings (7-9) at Detroit Lions (11-5): I believe the Detroit Lions have potential seeding to play for, while the Minnesota Vikings actually have an outside shot at a playoff spot. This matchup was close a couple of weeks ago, and could be once again in Week 18. Lions win 27-23

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) at Tennessee Titans (5-11): With a playoff spot on the line, the Jacksonville Jaguars can’t slip up here. Jaguars win 26-13

New York Jets (6-10) at New England Patriots (4-12): Two lost seasons end here in Foxborough. The game itself will probably be close, but nonconsequential. Jets win 17-16

Atlanta Falcons (7-9) at New Orleans Saints (8-8): I’ll still never understand how the Atlanta Falcons scraped together seven wins with their current roster. I’ll take the New Orleans Saints, who could potentially be NFC South champions by the end of the day. Saints win 24-17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Carolina Panthers (2-14): A playoff spot is on the line for Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: they just have to hope Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers don’t play the role of spoiler. Buccaneers win 27-10

Chicago Bears (7-9) at Green Bay Packers (8-8): Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears will finish just outside the playoff picture even if they win here (which I’m sure they would love to) but man, have they looked good in the second half of this season. Bears win 30-23

Denver Broncos (8-8) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-9): If the Denver Broncos could have just squeaked out one more win prior to Week 18, this game could have actually meant something. Raiders win 20-17

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at New York Giants (5-11): With the chance to win the NFC East still on the table, Jalen Hurts and the New York Giants should steamroll the New York Giants as a playoff tune-up. Eagles win 42-10

Seattle Seahawks (8-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-12): After shocking the Eagles last week, Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals are certainly a team capable of playing the spoiler role. But with a final NFC wildcard spot on the line, the Seattle Seahawks need to do everything they can to come out with a Week 18 road win. Seahawks win 27-24

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-11): The Easton Stick-led Los Angeles Chargers have quickly become at least not a laughing stock, and the vulnerable Kansas City Chiefs need a win to maintain more favorable playoff seeding. Chiefs win 23-16

Los Angeles Rams (9-7) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4): The San Francisco 49ers have already locked up homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Los Angeles Rams might want a win to stay as the conference’s sixth seed, but I’m not sure if anyone can even knock them down to the seventh spot. Rams win 30-20

Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at Washington Commanders (4-12): Playing in the same time slot as the Eagles, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys need to operate under the assumption that they need to win this game to win the NFC East. Against this Washington Commanders team, that shouldn’t be too hard, even if Dallas is just 3-5 away from home this season. Cowboys win 42-17

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (11-5): Nothing complicated here on Sunday Night Football: the winner gets the #2 seed in the AFC. The Miami Dolphins were embarrassed by the conference-leading Ravens last week, but hold a 7-1 record at home. Jos Allen and the Buffalo Bills’ resurgence from their midseason slump has been impressive, but ultimately, a wildcard berth seems more fitting for this year’s Buffalo squad. Dolphins win 26-17