Sakmann News, Entertainment and Sports
SNES Blog Network
At 0-2, with back-to-back losses by two points or less, it seemed as though the 2023-24 Denver Broncos would suffer a similar destiny as the 2022-23 Denver Broncos. Then in […]
At 0-2, with back-to-back losses by two points or less, it seemed as though the 2023-24 Denver Broncos would suffer a similar destiny as the 2022-23 Denver Broncos. Then in Week 3, the Broncos were flat out embarrassed with a 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins on the road.
Talks quickly shifted from “can newly acquired head coach Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson’s offense and make the Broncos a playoff team” to “should the Broncos lay down against the Chicago Bears in Week 4 to earn a better chance at the number one overall draft pick (and ergo, the rights to quarterback Caleb Williams).” Denver’s 31-28 win over the Bears at Solider Field was even controversial amongst some of the Broncos faithful: seeing it as a meaningless win that would ultimately hurt the Broncos 2024 NFL Draft status.
In Week 5, Denver lost 31-21 to Zach Wilson and the New York Jets at home, falling to 1-4. The following week, on Thursday Night Football, the Broncos lost 19-8 to the Kansas City Chiefs in an expected loss, but one that dropped Denver to 1-5. At this point, tank talk is still circulating, especially with an upcoming schedule that featured, on paper, some pretty challenging opponents.
Russell Wilson and the Broncos narrowly escaped with a 19-17 home win over a struggling Green Bay Packers team in Week 7. But in Week 8, the magic really started to happen. In an absolute shocker, the Broncos stomped the Kansas City Chiefs 24-9 on a cold day where Patrick Mahomes was reportedly suffering from flu-like symptoms. The Broncos defense forced five turnovers, including two interceptions of Mahomes, and Wilson threw three touchdown passes. Denver might have only improved to 3-5 at this point, but they just beat the defending Super Bowl champions and, at the time, best team in the AFC: who couldn’t the Broncos beat?
After a Week 9 bye, Week 10 presented probably the second-scariest matchup on paper of the entire season: the Buffalo Bills, with a usually strong offense led by dual-threat quarterback Josh Allen. Buffalo has struggled a bit up to this point, but still maintained a stellar home record as the Broncos flew in for a Monday Night Football matchup. Denver’s defense forced four more turnovers, but the offense stalled and settled for field goals and even punts after getting the ball on short fields. The Bills went up 22-21 with 1:55 to play, but the Broncos marched down the field for a game-tying field goal attempt: Will Lutz’s kick initially missed, but the Bills had too many men on the field. A second attempt, this time from 36 yards, was good: the Broncos had won their third straight game, improving to 4-5 and taking down two AFC heavyweights in the process.
The Broncos hosted Joshua Dobbs and a hot Minnesota Vikings team on Sunday Night Football in Week 11. In another game that came down to the wire, Denver forced three turnovers, and Wilson threw a game-winning touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton with 1:03 to play. Four straight wins, and an even 5-5 record meant the Broncos had officially come back from their 1-5 start: with seven games left to play, anything could be possible.
In Week 12, the Broncos hosted a Cleveland Browns team known for its feracious defense. Deshaun Watson was already sidelined for the season, but Dorian Thompson-Robinson is no slouch. But the Broncos won the turnover battle once again, 3-1, and came out on top 29-12, the biggest win in Denver’s Russell Wilson era, to improve to 6-5 with their fifth straight victory.
The Denver Broncos have gone from 1-5 to 6-5 and have officially swapped gears from “number one draft pick contenders” to “dark horse playoff contenders.” The Broncos don’t always win games the pretty or flashy way, but Sean Payton has made the necessary adjustments over time to put Denver in a winning position by the narrowest of margins. Denver’s defense has certainly recovered from their near record-worst performance in Week 3, creating turnover after turnover, inherently keeping the opponent’s point totals low.
Russell Wilson’s offense could, admittedly, do a little bit more with these turnovers: consistently turning them in to seven points, instead of three or zero, would make the Broncos a truly dominant team.
At 6-5, the Broncos sit 9th in the AFC standings, with the top seven teams (essentially) advancing to the playoffs. The Broncos are actually tied with the current 7th seed: the 6-5 Indianapolis Colts, as well as the 6-5 Houston Texans. Ahead of these three teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers occupy the top wildcard spot at 7-4, with the Cleveland Browns also securing a spot at 7-4.
Before we break down that wildcard race, there’s also the AFC West to consider. The 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs are two games ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West, which certainly isn’t an insurmountable lead with six games left to play. It would obviously require the Chiefs to lose a bit (in the division would be even sweeter) and the Broncos to keep on winning. The Broncos earning a 1-1 split against the Chiefs means it’s at least possible for Denver to win the division with the same record as the Chiefs, but it would require the Chiefs to lose some divisional matchups (AFC West record would be the second tiebreaker: Kansas City is currently 3-1 while Denver is 1-2. The Chiefs also hold a strong edge in AFC record, with a 6-1 mark against the Broncos’ 3-4.)
I haven’t run the numbers, I don’t know if the statistics would back it up: but Week 13’s matchup against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans certainly feels like the biggest game of the season for the Broncos, and winning it seems like it would tip the needle in Denver’s direction more than any of their other six remaining matchups.
As previously noted, the Texans and Broncos share identical 6-5 records, and both teams are fighting for the limited playoff spots available. Winning in Week 13 would, obviously, give the Broncos a win and the Texans a loss. It would also give Denver a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over the Texans: something the Broncos have already racked up against a couple key teams. For instance, beating the Bills could prove very lucrative if Buffalo (currently 6-6) makes a late season playoff push. If Buffalo ends up tied with only the Broncos for the final playoff spot, Denver would advance over Buffalo. Week 12’s win over the Browns was also very important: though Cleveland is 7-4 now, it’s possible they don’t finish the season quite as strong with what seems to be a revolving door at quarterback.
The Broncos also have two games against the Los Angeles Chargers over the final six weeks of the season. While Los Angeles is nearly out of it at 4-7, sweeping the Chargers would help the Broncos in the divisional record department, as well as prevent a similar attempt at a late-season climb in the standings for the Chargers. Similarly, a win against the 5-7 Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18 could serve the same purposes, if both or either team isn’t eliminated from contention at that time.
Besides that, the Broncos can’t control what the 7-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, 6-5 Indianapolis Colts, and 5-6 Cincinatti Bengals do.
Personally, I think the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are both due for a little correction to their 7-4 records. The Indianapolis Colts have a solid team, but may not be built to go toe-to-toe with AFC powerhouses. The Buffalo Bills nearly knocked off an elite Philadelphia Eagles team last week, so I’m still scared of them in the standings despite the 6-6 record.
The 6-5 Houston Texans honestly scare me the most though, and the prospect of them earning a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos is even more frightening. Realistically, the final wildcard picture might very well remain two AFC North teams and one final spot. Earning that head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston would be crucial to Denver’s playoff chances.
Looking at the situation in a different vein: two wins or less over the final six games won’t cut it for the Broncos. Winning three games and finishing 9-8 probably gives Denver about a 50-50 shot, but those odds improve significantly if one of the wins is over the Texans. With a 4-2 record down the stretch, finishing 10-7, the Broncos would more likely than not make the playoffs. And five or six wins in their final six games would certainly get the Broncos in the postseason.
Are you shocked the Broncos are actually in the playoff conversation in Week 12? Will Denver keep pushing towards the playoffs, or fall just short? To follow the 2023-24 Denver Broncos and more, be sure to follow Sak Sports Blog on Twitter or on Facebook.
Header Photo Credit: AP Photo
Be sure to follow Sak Sports Blog on Twitter or on Facebook for more NBA and NFL updates!
Sakmann News, Entertainment and Sports 