NFL
NFL 2020: Week 11 Picks
There’s no shortage of important matchups in Week 11 as the NFL season continues in its second half. On Thursday night, the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks clash with identical […]
There’s no shortage of important matchups in Week 11 as the NFL season continues in its second half.
On Thursday night, the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks clash with identical 6-3 records. A second victory over Seattle would give Kyler Murray and the Cardinals control of the NFC West: but not if Russell Wilson has anything to say about it.
On Sunday afternoon, there’s a few good games, but the highlight matchup sees the 6-3 Tennessee Titans and 6-3 Baltimore Ravens square off in an important game as far as the AFC playoff picture go.
Finally, both the Sunday and Monday night matchups feature teams in playoff position looking to solidify their standing. On Sunday night, the Kansas City Chiefs look to avenge their lone loss of the season, while the Las Vegas aiders seek a 7-3 record that will get them in to the playoff conversation. On Monday night, To Brady and Jared Goff face off in an interdivision NFC grudge match: and a rematch of Super Bowl 53’s quarterbacks.
Read on for a full breakdown of all fourteen Week 11 games.
See Also – NFL Power Rankings: Post-Week 1, Post-Week 2, Post-Week 3, Post-Week 4, Post-Week 5, Post-Week 6, Post-Week 7, Post-Week 8, Post-Week 9, Post-Week 10
MVP Watch: Quarter Season, Half Season
Picks Record
Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 11-5
Week 3: 8-7-1
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 10-4
Week 8: 7-7
Week 9: 7-7
Week 10: 9-5
Overall: 89-57-1 (61% correct)
Last week I incorrectly predicted:
- Texans over Browns (Thought Houston could muster more than seven points against Cleveland)
- Eagles over Giants (Daniel Jones actually played a game without committing a turnover, fueling a rare Giants win)
- Broncos over Raiders (Couldn’t have been more wrong, it was a Raiders blowout)
- Seahawks over Rams (Seattle’s offense got shut down, leading to a loss)
- Ravens over Patriots (Anticipated a Baltimore blowout: instead it was a narrow New England win)
Thursday Night Football
GAME OF THE WEEK: Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
Line: Seattle Seahawks (-3.0)
The Seahawks are the home favorite here, but almost feel like underdogs in this all-important Thursday Night Football matchup with the Cardinals. Arizona took Round 1, defeating Seattle 37-34 in overtime a few weeks ago.
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five games, while Seattle has gone 1-3 over their past four, with the Cardinals being the first team to defeat the Seahawks this season.
Two teams trending in opposite directions, with the NFC West lead up for grabs. The stakes couldn’t be higher for a Week 11 matchup, as the Cardinals look to secure a season sweep over the Seahawks.
Conventional wisdom would point to picking the Cardinals, especially after Seattle’s 23-16 loss to the the Rams last week. But I’m going unconventional, picking Russell Wilson to get it done at home. Again, picking a favorite shouldn’t be bold, but this prediction still feels like an underdog pick.
Seahawks win 27-24, PUSH ATS
Sunday Day Games
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Line: Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
This is a weird one to call. Yes, the Browns are 6-3, but I’m not particularly high on them. Cleveland has also struggled to score lately, with just 16 points over their last two games. The Eagles are an up-and-down mess, and rank a full ten spots lower than the Browns in my Post-Week 10 Power Rankings.
I think this game is pretty much a toss-up, and I’m gonna go out on a limb and pick the Eagles, with Cleveland’s offense continuing to struggle.
Eagles win 24-13, Eagles win ATS
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Line: New Orleans Saints (-5.0)
Jameis Winston gets the start against a recently resurgent Falcons team. Luckily, their defense is very suspect, so Winston, Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill shouldn’t have too much trouble racking up yards for New Orleans offense. Winston is prone to a couple turnovers, and the Saints might have to sweat this one out in the fourth quarter. But when the clock strikes 0:00, Winston and the Saints will be on top of Matt Ryan and the Falcons.
Saints win 27-26, Falcons win ATS
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) at Washington Football Team (2-7)
Line: Washington Football Team (-1.5)
Neither of these two teams has been completely horrible lately, despite just four wins and thirteen losses (and one tie) between the two franchises so far this season. Alex Smith had a career passing day in a loss to the Detroit Lions last week. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are coming off a big loss to the 9-0 Steelers, but recently upset the Tennessee Titans.
The stakes are pretty low (although a win could put Washington in the conversation for the NFC East,) but this should be fun, competitive football game between two quarterbacks hungry for wins. Give me the veteran over the rookie.
Washington wins 26-20, Washington wins ATS
Detroit Lions (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-7)
Line: No Line
I like Teddy Bridgewater’s Panthers team, even if they are 3-7. Carolina has lost five straight, but with a brutal schedule including the Bears, Saints, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. Of these five losses, only last week’s 46-23 loss to Tampa Bay was by more than one score.
Detroit has won more games, but I don’t think it’s clear that they’re the better team. I believe Christian McCaffrey’s status is up in the air (likely affecting the line,) but I’m willing to pick the Panthers either way: in a bit of a high-scoring affair
Panthers win 34-27
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.0)
Finally, an easy one. Don’t get me wrong, the Jaguars have been playing pretty well under rookie Jake Luton, losing by just a combined six points over the past two weeks. But this Steelers team isn’t taking their foot off the gas pedal just yet. I think it’s safe to assume a Pittsburgh win, but also reasonable to believe Jacksonville will cover once again.
Steelers win 26-18, Jaguars win ATS
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Line: Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
My close runner-up for Game of the Week is this clash of AFC powerhouses: or supposed powerhouses at least. Both teams have looked vulnerable recently, with Baltimore falling to New England and Tennessee being upset by the Bengals.
This game has big implications. First of all, neither team wants to fall to 6-4. For the Ravens, it would all but eliminate their chances of catching the Steelers, and could even mean the fall to third place behind the Browns.
The Titans won 28-12 when these two teams met in the playoffs in January. But right now, Baltimore is playing better football, even if they were outplayed by the Patriots last week in Foxborough. Give me Lamar Jackson in a revenge game of sorts.
Ravens win 24-17, Ravens win ATS
New England Patriots (4-5) at Houston Texans (2-7)
Line: New England Patriots (-2.0)
I tried to advocate for the Houston Texans for so long, but as it turns out, Houston might just be a bad team. They managed a measly seven points in a loss to the Browns last week.
The Patriots have won back-to-back games by six points or less, with their recent win over the Ravens obviously being more impressive than their comeback win over the Jets.
I’ll take the Patriots for a third straight win, in a low-scoring bout thanks to Houston’s solid defense.
Patriots win 18-15, Patriots win ATS
New York Jets (0-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-7)
Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
Even if you go by my Post-Week 10 Power Rankings, which have the Chargers disproportionately higher than their 2-7 record would suggest, Los Angeles is one of the softer opponents on the Jets schedule.
But Justin Herbert and the Chargers probably see this matchup as a perfect opportunity to get back in the win column, and I don’t think they’ll forgiving.
Chargers win 37-17, Chargers win ATS
Green Bay Packers (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
Line: Indianapolis Colts (-2.0)
The Colts somehow come in as 2.0-point home favorites for this afternoon matchup. Don’t get me wrong, the gap between Green Bay and Indianapolis isn’t that huge, but it’s definitely a gap that exists.
Despite a recent upset loss to the Vikings, the Packers are generally more consistent than the Colts. A well-oiled Packers offense should be enough to give Green Bay their eighth win of the season.
Packers win 30-22, Packers win ATS
Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Line: Minnesota Vikings (-7.5)
The Minnesota Vikings are turning a corner. With three straight wins, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and the Vikings will look to continue their winning ways against a Cowboys team that hasn’t won since September. Even if Andy Dalton comes back and plays well, I don’t think it will be enough for Dallas.
Vikings win 31-24, Cowboys win ATS
Miami Dolphins (6-3) at Denver Broncos (3-6)
Line: Miami Dolphins (-3.0)
These are two teams, and perhaps franchises, heading in opposite directions. The Dolphins found their guy in Tua Tagovailoa, while the Broncos may be having second thoughts about quarterback Drew Lock. Denver has lost three of four, while Miami has won five straight and is 6-1 dating back to Week 3.
The Dolphins don’t need explosive production from Tagovailoa, just enough to complement their well-rounded team. Miami does it again in Week 11, reaching a surprising 7-3.
Dolphins win 23-17, Dolphins win ATS
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3)
Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-7.0)
The Raiders are the only team to defeat the Chiefs this season, winning 40-32 in Week 5. Coming in with three straight wins and with home-field advantage this time, could Derek Carr and the Raiders pull off another upset on Sunday night?
Sure, they certainly could. But there a lot of things I would bet on before Patrick Mahomes losing in primetime. This game could be close and high scoring, just like their last meeting. But I’m going with the reigning Super Bowl champions, avenging their lone loss of the season.
Should the Raiders pull off another upset, they would only be a game behind Kansas City in the race for the AFC West, which would certainly be interesting.
Chiefs win 35-28, PUSH ATS
Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams (6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
On one hand, this feels like a shootout waiting to happen. On the other hand, Los Angeles’ defense might not allow that. The Rams are coming off their most important win of the season, shutting down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks to earn a 23-16 victory. The Buccaneers are coming off a 46-23 beatdown of the Carolina Panthers.
This game feels very much like a toss-up. The only team besides the Saints to beat Tampa Bay this season was the Bears, who possess a similarly strong if not stronger defense. Los Angeles offense would outpace Chicago’s, however. Basically I’m trying to justify picking the Rams, but for some reason I just can’t see them winning on Monday night.
This is also a quarterback rematch of Super Bowl 53 between Jared Goff and Tom Brady. Of course, when the Bears beat the Buccaneers, it was also a rematch between Brady and Nick Foles. Foles beat Brady in both the Super Bowl and this year’s regular season meeting. Brady beat Goff in Super Bowl 53, and will beat him on Monday night.
Buccaneers win 30-26, Buccaneers win ATS
Teams on Bye
- Buffalo Bills (7-3)
- Chicago Bears (5-5)
- New York Giants (3-7)
- San Francisco 49ers (4-6)
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Travel and Hiking
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