NFL 2025: NFC South Predictions

My 2025-26 NFL Predictions continue with the NFC South.

The NFC South, on paper, looks like the NFL’s weakest division. The Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons all have young quarterbacks at the helm with plenty left to prove before they can be competitive. Michael Penix Jr. is the successor in Atlanta for Kirk Cousins, but his game is still pretty raw. Bryce Young was benched last season in favor of Andy Dalton, who still looms on the Panthers roster. And with Derek Carr retiring prematurely this offseason, the Saints are rolling with Spencer Rattler, arguably the weakest starting quarterback in the NFL.

That leaves the NFC South in a similar situation to last year: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and then everyone else. Atlanta put the most pressure on the Buccaneers, finishing at 8-9 behind Tamp Bay’s 10-7 record. The Saints season was derailed by injuries, and the Panthers never posed a threat.

I don’t want to give you any reason not to read on, but if you can’t tell, this is the Buccaneers division to lose in 2025.

How will the division play out in the 2025-26 season? Read on for my 2025-26 NFC South Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter/X, on Facebook, or by commenting directly on this post!

2025-26 NFL Predictions

AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West

NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Last Year’s Prediction: 9-8. 1st Place NFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 10-7, 1st Place NFC South

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the most stable roster in the NFC South, the best quarterback by a mile, recent winning experience, and the lethal wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. What more could you ask for?

Godwin won’t be healthy to go Week 1 as he comes off an ankle injury, but Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving should be able to hold the offense steady until his return.

Last year, the Buccaneers went 10-7 with a 4-2 record within the NFC South, losing two games to the Falcons. This year, Tampa Bay may be able to carve out five or even six wins against the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers. I’m projecting a 10-7 record for Tampa Bay, as they might not take the next step to become a top NFC contender, but they’re still a solid team that can hang with the best of them, even outside of the NFC South.

2. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

Last Year’s Prediction: 7-10, T-2nd Place NFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 8-9, 2nd Place NFC South

As mentioned, Michael Penix Jr. has his work cut out for him to become an everyday starter in the NFL. But the Atlanta Falcons are still handing him the keys over 37-year-old Kirk Cousins.

The Falcons offense has no shortage of weapons: running back Bijan Robinson is a star, wide receivers Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud III make up a dependable trio, tight end Kyle Pitts is highly talented (even if he struggled to produce last season) and Jake Matthews is a dependable left guard.

The Falcons defense leaves much to be desired after finishing 23rd in yards allowed per game last season.

Atlanta might steadily climb to their seven-win total that I predict, or be a team that either starts or finishes hot. Either way, I don’t see the Falcons in the playoffs this season unless the quarterback situation really clicks. The Falcons do have the advantage of having one of the most (if not the most) dependable backup options in the league.

3. New Orleans Saints (5-12)

Last Year’s Prediction: 7-10, T-2nd Place NFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 5-12, T-4th Place NFC South

The New Orleans Saints had a rough offseason, losing starting quarterback Derek Carr to retirement and losing Paulson Adebo, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Will Harris in free agency.

Carr’s untimely retirement leaves the Saints with young, inexperienced quarterbacks with skill concerns. Former South Carolina QB, 2024-5th round pick Spencer Rattler, slots in as the starter after playing in seven games last season, completing 57% of his passes for 1,317 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions.

Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough, a second round pick by New Orleans in the 2025 NFL Draft, slots in as the backup.

If New Orleans quarterbacks can get the ball to their playmakers, this team will have a fighting chance. Running back Alvin Kamara, wide receivers Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Brandin Cooks, and Swiss-army knife Taysom Hill make for a slew of weapons on offense.

The Saints’ defense, however, allowed a whopping 380 yards per game in 2024, 30th in the NFL.

Some projections have the Saints winning even fewer games this season, but I think the roster will find a way to get a few scrappy wins throughout the season.

4. Carolina Panthers (4-13)

Last Year’s Prediction: 3-14, 4th Place NFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 5-12, T-4th Place NFC South

The Carolina Panthers are similar to the Falcons at the quarterback position in a sense: they’re starting the younger, more mobile quarterback with more of a future (Bryce Young) over the veteran who may be a better technical passer (Andy Dalton).

The difference is, the Panthers don’t have the same level of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Chubba Hubbard and Adam Thielen aren’t Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Carolina does have an exciting prospect in Tetairoa McMillan, but even the best rookie wide receivers seldom turn their teams win totals around in just one season.

The Panthers also share another characteristic with an NFC South brother: just like the Saints, the Panthers couldn’t stop anything their opponents threw at them last season. Carolina allowed the most yards (405) and points (31.4) per game in the league last season.

I expect more of the same in 2025: short offensive drives, giving opponents many opportunities to advance and score the football. Per my projections, the Panthers would have the second overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and picking somewhere in the top five seems like a strong possibility.

Previous NFC South Predictions

2023, 2022, 2021

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