#4 Denver Nuggets Vs. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder: Western Conference Semifinals Prediction

Less than 48 hours after dominating the Los Angeles Clippers in a Game 7 on their homecourt, the Denver Nuggets are on to their next opponent: the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are led by shooting guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will be named the 2024-25 NBA MVP in the coming days over the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic. The MVP race was a hot point of debate all season long, with Jokic putting up historic numbers across the board, averaging a triple double as a center. But Gilgeous-Alexander will earn the honor after leading the league in scoring, leading the Thunder to the best record in the NBA, and if we’re being honest, a little but of voter fatigue on the part of Jokic.

But the regular season is in the books, the MVP race has been decided: now we have up to seven games on the court to test who the best player in the world really is, and who can will their team to the Western Conference Finals.

This matchup has been anticipated for well over a year, as the Thunder and Nuggets were the two best teams in the West during the 2023-24 regular season. But both teams failed to advance to the 2024 Western Conference Finals: with the Thunder falling to Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the eventual Western Conference Champion Dallas Mavericks in six games and the Nuggets losing in seven games to Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Now, these two Western Conference powerhouses finally get to meet in the postseason, with the Thunder earning homecourt on behalf of their stellar 68-14 regular season record.

Nuggets-Thunder full second round series dates announced on https://t.co/XFa6YvxvF3: pic.twitter.com/k9NpxXPtbi
— Sak Sports Blog (@SakSports) May 5, 2025

Prediction

I’ll have to keep this a bit brief, as I’m running against the clock for Game 1 to start (you can thank the NBA for not giving me enough time to pen a full analysis.)

The national media is counting the Nuggets out, plain and simple. Nine out of nine ESPN NBA experts picked the Thunder to advance, with most at least respecting the Nuggets enough to predict the series will go the distance. Oddsmakers are even more pessimistic: a Thunder sweep is far more likely than the Nuggets winning in any amount of games, according to Vegas. FanDuel opened with the Thunder as -900 favorites, and the Nuggets as +650 underdogs.

I’ll keep my thesis short: these two teams split their regular season series 2-2, the Thunder are suspectable to another collapse after an odd amount of rest over the past month, and the Nuggets have the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic, on their team.

I’m not reinventing the wheel by bringing up two reasons the Thunder could look like a different team in this series than they have over their last 85, stellar games. The Thunder are young, though they are gaining experience, and their pace of play is fast and free throw-line reliant. This play style could falter in the playoffs if not executed properly. I still don’t feel like the Mavericks had a better roster than Oklahoma City last season, but Dallas still found a way to get it done in just six games.

This Nuggets team is incredibly battle-tested, with this being their eighth playoff series over the last three seasons. Denver is 6-1 in their last seven playoff series, with a 2023 NBA title to boot, and their entire core is available for this series (I said available, not necessarily healthy, as Michael Porter Jr. battles a shoulder injury and Aaron Gordon has come on and off the injury report all season.)

Christian Bruan, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and of course, Nikola Jokic, will find a way to get it done over a seven-game series, with the services of Peyton Watson and the ever-electric Russell Westbrook off the bench.

This series continues a revenge tour for Westbrook, who was visibly energized as he helped eliminate the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round: the team that traded him away last summer. Westbrook was of course drafted by and first made a name for himself with the Thunder, playing second fiddle to Kevin Durant and James Harden before leading the team himself for a few seasons.

The Nuggets are playing with an extremely quick turnaround, as mentioned, and may lose Game 1 to a well-rested Thunder team. But steal Game 2, win Games 3 and 4 at home: and Denver would quickly be up 3-1 in the series. Assuming Oklahoma City staves off elimination in Game 5, the Nuggets could close it out at home in Game 6.

But I’m not sure it will play it exactly that way, so my official prediction is the series will be split 2-2 after four games, but the Nuggets will win in six games.