NFL 2025: AFC West Predictions

My 2025-26 NFL Predictions continue with the AFC West: home of the team that represented the AFC in the last three Super Bowls.

Besides the Kansas City Chiefs’ obvious success over the past decade (with a whopping nine straight AFC West titles), the AFC West is one of the NFL’s strongest divisions from top-to-bottom.

The division sent three teams to the postseason last year under the NFL’s expanded seven-team playoff field. Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers finished 11-5 in their first season with head coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm. Veteran head coach Sean Payton likewise took the Denver Broncos to the playoffs, with a 10-7 record and a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix.

The Las Vegas Raiders had some reasons to be excited last year, but things fell apart en route to a 4-13 finish. But with, you guessed it, another veteran head coach (Pete Carroll) entering the chat, bringing former Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith with him, things could get interesting once again in Vegas.

How will the division play out in the 2025-26 season? Read on for my 2025-26 AFC West Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter/X, on Facebook, or by commenting directly on this post!

2025-26 NFL Predictions

AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West

NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

Last Year’s Prediction: 12-5, 1st Place AFC West

Last Year’s Actual: 15-2, 1st Place AFC West

The Kansas City Chiefs have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl for three straight seasons: off of a 14-3 finish in 2022 (Patrick Mahomes also won NFL MVP), an 11-6 finish in 2023, and a 15-2 finish last season, their best record in franchise history.

As I’ve written many times before: when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are your opponent, good luck. Mahomes is 89-23 in his career as a starting quarterback, a 79% winning rate.

Still, the Chiefs roster isn’t perfect, and Mahomes may have to do more and more to get his team to produce the same offensive output as past seasons.

The Chiefs survived eleven one-score games last season en route to their 15 wins. Winning close games consistently is a good thing, but going 11-0 in one-score games might not be repeatable. Kansas City was also allowing teams like the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Las Vegas Raiders to make them sweat in these one-score situations.

Therefore, I have my expectations slightly tempered for the Chiefs this season. I still think Kansas City will win the AFC West for the 10th straight season, but there is competition within the division that could pose a threat, or at the very least lower the Chiefs win total. If the Chiefs played in a weaker division, I might have projected 14 or 15 wins, but in a tough AFC West, 12 wins will still be considered elite.

2. Denver Broncos (11-6)

Last Year’s Prediction: 5-12, 4th Place AFC West

Last Year’s Actual: 10-7, 3rd Place AFC West

The Denver Broncos exceeded expectations last season, with head coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix leading the team to a 10-7 record and a playoff berth, despite competing in the crowded AFC West. From here, the Broncos look to keep improving, and could even make a run for the AFC West title if everything falls just right, including beating the Chiefs twice in the regular season.

Realistically, I have Denver finishing just behind the Chiefs, but close enough that Kansas City has to sweat all the way through their Week 18 meeting with the Broncos.

The Broncos are poised to be better on both sides of the ball this season, which should scare opponents. Denver already possessed a Top 10 defense, Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II isn’t going anywhere, and the Broncos added Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

On the offensive side of the ball, Bo Nix will get to make his year two strides with new running backs J.K. Dobbins and rookie RJ Harvey, as well as former Giants and Jaguars tight end Evan Engram, who has impressed in the preseason thus far.

All in all, the Broncos took their 10-7, upstart roster and fine-tuned it. I would be pretty surprised to see the Broncos win total regress in 2025: even in a competitive AFC West, Denver has the tools on both sides of the ball to succeed.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

Last Year’s Prediction: 10-7, 2nd Place AFC West

Last Year’s Actual: 11-6, 2nd Place AFC West

The Los Angeles Chargers used their first two 2025 NFL Draft selections on North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton and Ole Miss wide receiver Tre Harris. Honestly, it’s an investment in the future on the offensive side of the ball, as paying Justin Herbert over the years will be expensive.

Najee Harris comes over from Pittsburgh to slot in as the starting running back, and a 33-year-old Keenan Allen is back in the fray for the Chargers. Besides these veterans, Herbert also has wideouts Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston to throw to, along with tight end Will Dissly.

With a talented defense to boot, the Chargers are due for another strong season under head coach Jim Harbaugh. I do have Los Angeles and Denver flipping win totals and spots in the AFC West this season: I think the Chargers prospects are riding more-or-less steady, while the Broncos have made some key upgrades in the offseason.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

Last Year’s Prediction: 7-10, 3rd Place AFC West

Last Year’s Actual: 4-13, 4th Place AFC West

The Las Vegas Raiders completely fell apart in Antonio Pierce’s first and only season as head coach, finishing 4-13, dead last in the AFC West. This season, it’s a totally new look: Super Bowl-winning head coach Pete Carroll has come out of retirement to lead the team, Geno Smith will be the quarterback after a fairly successful tenure in Seattle, explosive Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty was taken with the team’s high first round pick, and tight end Brock Bowers is looking as good as advertised and then some, tying the passing game together.

Davante Adams is no longer a Raider, but all in all, the offense has a pretty high upside despite finishing 27th in yards per game last season. But with a middle of the road defense, will the Raiders be able to keep up in the AFC West? Failing to contain Mahomes, Herbert, and even Nix could lead to five or six quick losses for this Raiders squad.

Don’t get me wrong, like I said, the upside is there. Geno Smith willing the Raiders to a winning record or even a playoff berth would be quite the story, and a testament to how much he’s evolved since his rookie tenure with the New York Jets. But personally, I think this might be a gap year, leading to something bigger in 2026.

Previous AFC West Predictions

2023, 2022, 2021

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