NFL 2025: AFC South Predictions

My 2025-26 NFL Predictions series continues with my third division: the AFC South.

The Houston Texans have won the division in back-to-back seasons, and have even won a playoff game each year to boot. The future looks bright for Houston, with young quarterback C.J. Stroud continuing to improve at the NFL level. The Texans ceiling might seem lower without Stefon Diggs (who only played eight games for Houston) but their receiving corps and overall roster is still a force to be reckoned with.

After that, there’s a couple of interesting teams that could make some noise if all the pieces fall in to place.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been competitive before with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, and with two-way rookie Travis Hunter in the fold, the Jaguars could be on the rise once again after a down year in 2024-25.

The Indianapolis Colts have shown flashes of competitiveness as well, but things have yet to click consistently with Anthony Richardson at the helm, whether due to up-and-down play or injury. Daniel Jones does provide some insurance at the quarterback position.

Finally, the Tennessee Titans, who “earned” the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with the worst record in the league, have nowhere to go but up (theoretically) after using that pick on Miami quarterback Cam Ward.

How will the division play out in the 2025-26 season? Read on for my 2025-26 AFC South Predictions, and if you’d like to debate or discuss any predictions, join the conversation with @SakSports on Twitter/X, on Facebook, or by commenting directly on this post!

2025-26 NFL Predictions

AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West

NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West

1. Houston Texans (12-5)

Last Year’s Prediction: 11-6, 1st Place AFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 10-7, 1st Place AFC South

As mentioned, the Houston Texans are the cream of the crop in the AFC South. Houston has the best quarterback in the division, as well as a rock solid roster across the board. Winning playoff games in back-to-back seasons show that the Texans aren’t just the best team in a relatively weak division, but a legitimate contender in the AFC. Could this be the year the Texans win two playoff games, and advance to their first ever AFC Championship?

C.J. Stroud will have to make due without Stefon Diggs, but with Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Tank Dell, Joe Mixon, and Dalton Schultz all in the mix, I think the Texans offense will be just fine.

I’m projecting Houston to take that next step, and finish 12-5 after back-to-back 10-7 seasons. The AFC South schedule alone could present five or six wins for the Texans.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-10)

Last Year’s Prediction: 9-8, 2nd Place AFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 4-13, 3rd Place AFC South

The Jacksonville Jaguars had something for a minute: finishing 9-8 in the 2022-23 season, shocking the Los Angeles Chargers with one of the biggest comebacks in NFL playoff history, and even challenging the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in a one-score game.

But Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars haven’t been back to the playoffs since then, and the perfect storm of draft picks and free agency spending that led to that playoff run might have worn off by 2025.

The Jaguars will improve on their 4-13 record from last season just by getting healthier. Lawrence has some dynamic weapons on offense, like Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., and Travis Hunter (who of course doubles as a shutdown cornerback: to what extent, is yet to be seen.)

But I’m not really moved by the Jaguars as a contender. From my 7-10 projection, the Jaguars could easily sneak their way up to a winning, 9-8 record. And who knows, maybe that will even be enough for the AFC South to send it’s first Wildcard team to the playoffs since 2020.

3. Indianapolis Colts (5-12)

Last Year’s Prediction: 8-9, 3rd Place AFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 8-9, 2nd Place AFC South

The Indianapolis Colts also feel like a team that may have not seized their moment, and are somewhat stuck in purgatory.

Of course, it’s just head coach Shane Steichen’s third season at the helm, and he’s turned in 9-8 and 8-9 finishes so far. But at one point, the Colts looked very strong (2020, 11-5 finish, almost beat the Bills in the Wildcard Round). Then, in 2021-22, the Colts infamously didn’t make the playoffs on account of not beating (or even showing up against) a weaker Jaguars team with nothing to play for in Week 18.

Since then, the Colts have added quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has battled a couple of injuries. Even when on the field, Richardson’s play can be up-and-down, but he certainly shows high upside. Former New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones could provide a steady, if not low-upside, hand at the position if needed as well.

Overall, I think the Colts roster had a strong direction five or six years ago, but right now, Indianapolis doesn’t feel like a contender.

4. Tennessee Titans (4-13)

Last Year’s Prediction: 3-14, 4th Place AFC South

Last Year’s Actual: 3-14, 4th Place AFC South

I’m sure the Tennessee Titans will make more strides on the football field than I have them making on paper. But as I handed out the 272 wins there are to give for the 17-game season, I had to have a couple teams laying duds, and the Titans are still a few steps away from competitiveness.

Expectations for first overall pick Cam Ward are almost non-existent, which could be an advantage for Tennessee. Unlike previous first overall picks, Ward and the Titans aren’t getting extensive national coverage, and that might just be fine by them.

Ward’s offensive arsenal includes running back Tony Pollard, wide receivers Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, and Van Jefferson, and tight end Chig Okonkwo.

Tennessee finished 26th in offensive yards per game last season, but 2nd in least yards allowed. If Ward can put something together, the Titans could as much as double my win prediction. That’s as far as I’ll go though: anything better than 8-9 would be a huge surprise, as Tennessee does not seem playoff-ready.