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A year after hoisting the franchise’s first-ever NBA championship trophy, the Denver Nuggets had serious and realistic expectations of repeating as back-to-back champions. Those hopes seemed all but over as […]
A year after hoisting the franchise’s first-ever NBA championship trophy, the Denver Nuggets had serious and realistic expectations of repeating as back-to-back champions. Those hopes seemed all but over as Denver fell in an 0-2 series hole in the second round of the playoffs to the Minnesota Timberwolves, losing both games at home inside Ball Arena, but then things got kooky. The Nuggets battled back, winning the next three games to take a commanding 3-2 series lead. Minnesota won Game 6 on their homecourt to force a Game 7 back at Ball Arena, where the Nuggets seemed to be in control with a double-digit lead.
But then things fell apart, the Nuggets blew the lead, couldn’t buy a bucket in crunch time, and were eliminated from postseason contention.
The loss only hurt more as the Timberwolves, gassed from the seven-game series against the Nuggets, could hardly put up a fight against the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks. And then in the NBA Finals, the Mavericks faced a Boston Celtics team that Denver went 2-0 against in the regular season. Neither the Celtics nor Mavericks looked super-human in the NBA Finals, and it left a sour taste in the mouths of Denver Nuggets fans and players alike: that could have been us. That should have been us.
In this context, anything short of reaching the NBA Finals in 2024-25 will likely be considered a failure for the Nuggets, and anything short of, well, actually winning it all would likely fail to satisfy the hunger that this team and these players have right now.
The Nuggets aren’t built to win in five years, they’re built to win now. Nikola Jokic will go down as one of the greatest players to ever touch a basketball, and he’s got all-star caliber (even if they haven’t been named to a team) teammates in Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon.
And of course, this year’s X-factor: polarizing point guard Russell Westbrook, who joined the Nuggets in the offseason after a buyout from the Los Angeles Clippers via the Utah Jazz.
On the flip side, the loss of starter and elite two way-player Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could hurt the team’s overall prospects.
It’s hard to say much about how great Nikola Jokic is or just how much he means to the Denver Nuggets without sounding redundant. Jokic is the best player in the world right now, and by the metric of Player Efficiency Rating (PER) he’s the best player of all-time, clocking in just ahead of Michael Jordan and LeBron James. (Writer’s Note: Jokic is still in his prime, so while this number is prone to tail off later in his career, it’s still insane that Jokic is, statistically measured, the most efficient player ever, so far.)
Jokic won back-to-back NBA MVP Awards in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, and reclaimed the award last year in 2023-24. This gave Jokic the title of MVP in three out of four seasons: with many fans seeing Jokic as the rightful winner in 2022-23 as well, when he was narrowly edged out by Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid.
Jokic’s “snub” (no disrespect to Embiid, but many voters and Embiid-supporters at the time have publicly regretted their decision, and while playoff success isn’t supposed to impact this regular season award, Jokic hoisting his first-ever NBA championship while Embiid was bounced in the second round definitely spoke volumes) prevented the Serbian center from achieving a historic four-peat at MVP, which has never been accomplished.
More than ever before, Jokic’s MVP case will be subject to voter fatigue. There are plenty of other great stories in the NBA: Giannis Antetokounmpo is still a two-way force for a usually elite regular season Milwaukee Bucks team, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder are only getting better, and Steph Curry is still capable of putting up video game numbers on an undermanned Golden State Warriors team.
Jokic won the 2023-24 NBA MVP Award on 26.4 PPG, 9.0 APG, and 12.4 RPG, with the Nuggets finishing tied for the best record in the Western Conference, earning the second seed.
If Jokic puts up similar numbers and the Nuggets finish in a similar position this season, then on paper, Jokic’s case would be just as strong as it was last season. But again, we know this isn’t true: voters will want to see something more, and Jokic will have to make a clear-cut case for himself in order to win a staggering fourth MVP award in five seasons.
Personally, I can see Jokic averaging 26.3 points, 9.7 assists, and 12.2 rebounds per game, cooling off his scoring by just 0.1 PPG but upping his assists as he continues to elevate his teammates. I also think the Nuggets will finish with a high-to-top seed (more predictions on that later) which means on paper, I see Jokic as an extremely strong MVP candidate once again.
On October 14, NBA Central reported: “An anonymous NBA executive believes the Denver Nuggets are ‘stuck’ due to Jamal Murray declining and Michael Porter Jr. being overrated “Denver’s second-best player is going backward. Jamal [Murray] hasn’t been the same. There is something about Jamal’s health and physical capacity right now that concerns me. Michael Porter is also terribly overrated. He’s a one-way player and just a scorer. I also don’t think Denver has the assets to get an upgrade. They’ll be stuck with the team they have.”
First and foremost, there can’t be “rumors” that a player is overrated: he either is or isn’t. Micheal Porter Jr. can be a polarizing player for the Nuggets internal fanbase, but he has never been a polarizing player within the Nuggets organization. Through his health concerns, through his hot-and-cold streaks, Denver has stuck with their homegrown pick, and even rewarded him with a max contract extension.
That’s where the overrated talk comes in to play: pundits are arguing that Porter Jr. isn’t worth the cap space that a max contract takes up. But the Nuggets aren’t paying Porter Jr. for what he could be, they’re paying him for what he is. Call him a one-dimensional player on offense, call him streaky: the Nuggets are paying Porter Jr. for a reason. He was an integral part of the Nuggets 2022-23 NBA Championship Run, and when the Nuggets are playing their very best basketball, it’s because Porter Jr. is firing on all cylinders.
Next, addressing Jamal Murray’s health: yes, it is a legitimate concern. But to imply Murray’s health has already led to some decline is off-key, in my opinion. Murray had not one, but two game-winning shots in the Nuggets’ first round series against the Los Angeles Lakers last season. Murray tied a career-high with 21.2 points per game in the regular season, and set new career-highs in assists per game (6.5) and field goal percentage (48%.)
While Murray couldn’t elevate his game to 2022-23, championship-winning level in the 2023-24 playoffs, the reports of his demise may also be premature.
The pundits aren’t completely wrong: the Nuggets roster makeup (Jokic supermax, Murray, Porter Jr. max contracts) does essentially lock them in to place with the lineup they currently have. But these were all recent decisions: the Nuggets aren’t “stuck” with Murray and Porter Jr., but rather, committed to them and what they bring to the team.
The Nuggets championship window is open as long as Nikola Jokic has a supporting cast: Denver is more than happy to search for their second NBA championship with 4/5 of the lineup that brought them their first.
The biggest change for the Nuggets won’t be an addition, but their key subtraction: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope skipping town to sign a well-deserved deal with the Orlando Magic. This is already a testament of what paying their top stars top dollar will do to the Nuggets over time: the back-end starters and key bench players (Bruce Brown comes to mind) will likely move on when they become free agents.
Caldwell-Pope’s departure created a hole in the starting lineup for the first time in two seasons. While I had some aspirations that Peyton Watson would make the jump, it makes much more sense that Christian Braun is taking the leap instead. The third-year guard from Kansas slots more naturally in to the shooting guard position, and Braun will likely be tasked with playing a lot of defense in Caldwell-Pope’s absence.
Watson can stay on the bench with the second unit to provide a spark, both offensively and defensively. Watson and Braun were a natural substitution duo at times last season, and Watson was often tasked with closing games defensively. Perhaps Watson could replace Braun in defensive-minded lineups when the opposing team has a lot of height at the guard position.
I didn’t know where else to slot in Aaron Gordon, but I had to talk about him: I absolutely love the guy. Gordon’s Nuggets career has been nothing short of the epitome of being a team player. Gordon has said it’s hard not to be selfless when the best basketball player in the world shows you he’s capable of doing the same. Gordon isn’t the best or second-best player on the Nuggets, but he’s the heartbeat of the team: offering offense, rebounding, selfless-ness, and energy. Seeing Gordon and his infectious smile on the jumbotron, or if you’re lucky enough to sit courtside, in-person, brings immense energy to the Nuggets fans.
And every now and then, Air Gordon will throw down a dunk that absolutely blows the roof off of Ball Arena.
I know, it’s been a while and we’ve barely talked about Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is everything and nothing to this 2024-25 team all at once. He’s the X-factor, with a myriad of varying expectations and hopes.
If Westbrook plays his Los Angeles Clippers role with the Nuggets, then I’m already happy: he’s a solid addition. Anyone expecting Oklahoma City Thunder or Houston Rockets Russ obviously hasn’t been keeping up.
Westbrook embraced his bench role in Los Angeles, even finishing 7th in the Sixth Man of the Year vote. On a per-36 minutes basis, Westbrook took the least shots that he has in 13 seasons, on the second-highest shooting percentage of his career. Westbrook’s overall usage on the court went down, showing he can accept his new role on a deep team like the Clippers.
Westbrook’s Nuggets arc should likely mirror what he did for the Clippers: be one of the first men off the bench, and get used in a variety of lineups, often playing with the starters throughout the game as well.
Westbrook can lead a second unit with Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Dario Saric, and Zeke Nnaji, but he can also run some pick-and-roll with Jokic, or a run-and-gun uptempo offense with Murray and Porter Jr..
Westbrook’s main value will come in his versatility, and I don’t expect any two nights to look the same for the 36-year-old veteran.
The Nuggets are rounded out by third-year forward Peyton Watson, who provides a little bit of everything off the bench with an energetic spark, Julian Strawther, a second-year guard who led all players in scoring this NBA preseason, veteran big men DeAndre Jordan and Vlatko Cancar, as well as fifth-year big man Zeke Nnaji.
Guard Trey Alexander and Jalen Pickett as well as forward Hunter Tyson appear on the depth chart as two-way G-League players.
The Nuggets significant offseason acquisition was veteran power forward and potential center Dario Saric. Saric appeared in 64 games for the Golden State Warriors last season, starting nine of them. Saric averaged 8.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game in just 17.2 minutes per night, making the most of his time on the court. Saric also stretches the floor: the big man shot 37.6% from deep with Golden State, averaging 1.2 made threes per game.
Saric offers a unique new wrinkle to the Nuggets bench unit, specifically when Jokic needs to come off the floor (which like or not, the Serbian big man will have to rest a little bit more for Denver this season, especially in the regular season.
An all-bench unit of Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, Dario Saric, and either Zeke Nnjai or DeAndre Jordan could be interesting offensively.
Additionally, any lineup that includes Russell Westbrook, Nikola Jokic, and Dario Saric could certainly be tricky to defend. Throw in Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. Aaron Gordon, and Peyton Watson as chess pieces, and the Nuggets could really throw out some creative lineups this season.
Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric won’t put on incredible individual performances on a nightly basis, but they make the Nuggets deeper and harder to defend, especially late in games when Denver possesses more than five capable players.
The Denver Nuggets finished tied for the best record in the Western Conference last season, sliding to the second seed on tiebreakers, ceding the top playoff position in the conference to the Oklahoma City Thunder. This came in no small part due to a late season loss to Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs on the road.
Still, Denver finished 57-25: their best mark in franchise history. This was a four-win improvement from the previous season, where the Nuggets won the Western Conference at 53-29 before cruising to their first NBA Championship with a 16-4 playoff record.
This year, the competition is still stiff: the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to run it back in a three-team race to the West’s best record. The Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans, and Dallas Mavericks could also threaten to enter that race, but I see the Nuggets, Thunder, and Timberwolves claiming the top three seeds, in any order.
Specifically, I think Denver lets off the gas just a little bit in the regular season, using Westbrook and Saric to either shorten the workload or create nights off for Jokic and Murray. Jokic is a workhorse, but the team needs him most in playoff time, and also needs to learn how to win without him from time to time. For this reason, I’ll give the Nuggets third place in the Western Conference with say, a 52-30 record.
If the Nuggets enter the postseason with a healthy starting five, they will likely be the favorites to win it all. Denver entered the 2024 postseason with aspirations of going back-to-back, and were heavily expected to at least represent the Western Conference in the 2024 NBA Finals. On paper, it seemed that the only team that stood between Denver and back-to-back titles would be the Boston Celtics: and the Nuggets finished the regular season 2-0 against them.
Instead, the Nuggets suffered a chaotic, nightmare series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Two home losses at Ball Arena made the Nuggets title dreams seem all but over, but Denver battled back to take a 3-2 series lead, before eventually blowing a double-digit lead in Game 7 at home. The series made no sense from any angle, and the Timberwolves exhausted everything they had in order to overcome the Nuggets: losing promptly in the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks.
The Nuggets would have been favored against the Mavericks, and had homecourt advantage in the series. Denver wouldn’t have been the higher seed in the NBA Finals against Boston, but as one of the only teams to beat the Celtics at TD Garden in 2023-24, the series would have been a true toss-up.
If the Nuggets position themselves with a Top 4 seed in the 2025 NBA playoffs, there’s no reason to think they can’t win the Western Conference and the NBA Finals once again.
Most importantly, the team, the roster, that successfully ended the Nuggets’ 2024 playoff run doesn’t exist anymore. In a stunning move, the Timberwolves shipped Karl Anthony-Towns out of, well, town, in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. Could Minnesota be better off now? It’s possible, but having two elite big men (KAT and Rudy Gobert) alongside the electric Anthony Edwards and apparent Nuggets-killer Naz Reid was a winning formula for the Timberwolves last year. Minnesota was able to win that series because of how well they matched up with Denver.
Anything could happen with this year’s Minnesota team, but it remains to be seen.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are certainly a threat, and I’m not sure how the Nuggets would have handled them in last year’s playoffs in the two teams met. The Los Angeles Lakers are always building towards something too, but the Nuggets have absolutely owned them in the last two postseasons with an 8-1 record against Los Angeles.
The Dallas Mavericks are formidable as well, but too top-heavy in my opinion to overcome a well-rounded team like the Nuggets.
So call me a homer (this is my third NBA season living in Denver and I had the honor and privilege of watching the team win their first championship from about as close as you can get) but I predict the Denver Nuggets will win the 2025 NBA Finals.
The default opponent would be the Boston Celtics, attempting to run it back, in a matchup of the two previous champions, which would be pretty juicy.
But I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the Nuggets will see a familiar face: Karl Anthony-Towns, Jalen Brunson, and the New York Knicks will reach the NBA Finals and put Denver to the test, but the Nuggets will win in six games.
If the Knicks have homecourt advantage in that potential matchup, Game 6 would be at Ball Arena: the second championship the Nuggets would have won in that building in three seasons. If the Nuggets had homecourt advantage, then Denver would claim their second title at Madison Square Garden: with Nikola Jokic hoisting his second NBA Finals MVP trophy in one of the most famed arenas in the world.
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