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The 11-2 Denver Broncos entered their Week 15 matchup with the 9-3-1 Green Bay Packers as home underdogs (by 1.5 points) despite winning ten straight games this season and ten […]
The 11-2 Denver Broncos entered their Week 15 matchup with the 9-3-1 Green Bay Packers as home underdogs (by 1.5 points) despite winning ten straight games this season and ten straight home games at Empower Field at Mile High, dating back to last season: a first in NFL history.
And for much of the first half, the oddsmakers looked correct. The Packers struck first with two Brandon McManus (a Super Bowl 50 champion with the Broncos) field goals, before Bo Nix found Michael Bandy for a 20-yard touchdown pass, giving the Broncos a 7-6 lead. By the end of the first half, the Packers held a narrow 16-14 lead, perfectly in line with the game’s spread.
On the opening drive of the second half, Josh Jacobs ripped off a 40-yard rushing touchdown to give Jordan Love and the Packers a 23-14 lead. According to ESPN’s win probability chart, Green Bay’s chance to win this game peaked around 81.6% at this time.
But on Green Bay’s next possession, 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II picked off Love to set up a 7-play, 71-yard scoring drive, capped with a 14-yard touchdown pass from Nix to Courtland Sutton. Packers wide receiver Christian Watson was shaken up on this drive, and defensive stud Micah Parsons also left the game with a potentially-serious torn ACL injury.
The Broncos scored another touchdown on their next possession, a 23-yard connection between Nix and Troy Franklin, to retake the lead, 27-23 at the end of the third quarter.
Green Bay responded with another McManus field goal, his fourth of the afternoon, to keep the pressure on in the fourth quarter. Nix and the Broncos offense marched right back down the field and found the endzone once again with an RJ Harvey four-yard touchdown run to take a 34-26 lead: still just one possession, with 7:27 left to play in the fourth quarter,
Then, Love committed another early drive turnover: this time, an interception by Broncos cornerback Riley Moss. The Broncos didn’t score again after this point, and honestly didn’t sustain any drives long enough to milk significant clock (turning it over on downs without picking up a first down twice.)
But with the game situation clear, and the Packers needing a touchdown to keep the game alive, the Broncos defense did what they do best: clamp down. On two possessions with the game on the line, the Packers went seven plays for one yard and four plays for -5 yards. Denver’s defense didn’t budge, and the Broncos held on for a 34-26 win to improve to 12-2, including a perfect 7-0 at home. The win also marks Denver’s eleventh straight win this season, as well as their eleventh straight victory at Empower Field at Mile High.
With the win, the 12-2 Denver Broncos can’t miss the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs. Technically, the Broncos could be anything except for the #4 seed right now, but as we’ll break down, the only really likely scenarios are the #1 seed, the #2 seed, or if disaster strikes and the Chargers steal the division, a #5 seed.
The Broncos improved to 12-2 on Sunday, with their main competition for the AFC’s #1 seed, the New England Patriots, falling apart and allowing a 21-point comeback by their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills. The double whammy of the Broncos win and Patriots loss raises Denver’s chance of winning the AFC’s #1 seed to 78%, per PlayoffStatus.com.
Denver even has a top seed-clinching scenario in Week 16, if they beat the 10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars at home and then get some help. To clinch a first-round bye, the Broncos would also need:
Similarly, the Broncos can also clinch the 2025-26 AFC West title in a simpler scenario:
Of course, even if the Broncos don’t clinch either of these titles this week, they are in the driver’s seat for both of them. Denver holds the common opponent head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots, and the magic number for clinching the #1 seed is two: any combination of Broncos wins or Patriots losses. Any combination of a Broncos win and a trailing team loss would also eliminate the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills from contention for the AFC’s #1 seed.
The only real pressure that can be put on the Broncos with three weeks down the stretch is if the Broncos lose their next two games (Vs. Jaguars, then at a Patrick Mahomes-less, playoff-eliminated Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day) and the Chargers win at least one of their next two games (at Dallas Cowboys, Vs. Houston Texans.) If the Chargers enter Week 18 with the same amount of wins as the Broncos, or even one loss, then Los Angeles would still be alive for the division title by virtue of the potential to earn a season-sweep of the Broncos with a Week 18 win.
For instance, even if the Broncos win one of their next two games to enter Week 18 at 13-3, the AFC West would still be yet to be decided if the Chargers win back-to-back games and enter Week 18 at 12-4.
But if the Broncos split their next two games and the Chargers split their next two games, then the AFC West will be wrapped up before Week 18 kickoff, as the magic number of two will have been achieved.
If this all sounds too complicated, how about this: if the Broncos win two of their next three games, the AFC’s #1 seed is theirs, with no help needed.
Assuming the Broncos will roll straight through the schedule with wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars at home and the Patrick Mahomes-less Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day isn’t a far-off shot. I think there’s a solid chance this happens, though I’m also not counting either team out to give the Broncos a fight.
Therefore, the “safest bet” would seem to be that the Broncos win at least one of their next two games, and the Chargers lose at least one of their next two games: and the Dallas Cowboys and especially the Houston Texans are no push-overs.
In either case, the Broncos will have locked up the AFC West by Week 18, by my account. If the Broncos haven’t locked up the #1 seed by their own virtue of beating the Jaguars and the Chiefs, it’s still likely they might have the first-round bye clinched with the Patriots or Bills dropping a game.
My official prediction is that we won’t see the Broncos starters in Week 18 against the Chargers, because the #1 seed will already be clinched.
Header Photo Credit: ESPN
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