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The Denver Nuggets handled the Houston Rockets with ease on the road in the final game of the regular season to clinch the fourth seed in the Western Conference, gaining […]
The Denver Nuggets handled the Houston Rockets with ease on the road in the final game of the regular season to clinch the fourth seed in the Western Conference, gaining homecourt advantage in at least the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
With the Western Conference standings in flux over the course of the final week of the regular season, it was anyone’s guess where the Nuggets would land or who their first-round opponent would be. Heading in to Sunday, it still could have been the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, or even a play-in game.
Ultimately, the Nuggets took care of business on their end, going 3-0 to end the regular season under new head coach David Adelman, and drew a red-hot Los Angeles Clippers team that finished the season strong (including an overtime win over the Warriors in their regular season finale) to earn the fifth seed in the West.
While a lot has changed in five years, these two teams do have some recent playoff history. In the 2020 NBA COVID-19 “Bubble”, the Clippers held a 3-1 series lead against the Nuggets in the Western Conference semifinals, and even held a commanding lead in Game 5. But the Nuggets roared back to win Game 5, and eventually the series, showing flashes of the team they were destined to become in just the second playoff appearance of the Nikola Jokic-era.
Like I said, a lot has changed since then: Jokic hadn’t won any NBA MVP awards at that time, the Nuggets hadn’t won an NBA Championship. The Clippers still had Paul George. The Nuggets started Jokic and Jamal Murray alongside Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, and Jerami Grant most nights: Aaron Gordon was still yet-to-come, and Michael Porter Jr. was coming off the bench.
Even looking at this year’s regular season matchups doesn’t tell the full story of how these two teams might match up in these 2025 NBA Playoffs. The Nuggets and Clippers split their regular season series 2-2 in 2024-25:
So no Kawhi for all four matchups, no Jokic for one, and these two teams haven’t met since January 8. Throw in new head coach David Adelman, and these two teams will have a lot to learn about each other in a short amount of time.
If their final regular season game is any indication, the Los Angeles Clippers will likely employ eight players for the most part. Starters James Harden, Kris Dunn, Norman Powell, Kawhi Leonard, and Ivica Zubac, as well as Derrick Jones Jr., Ben Simmons, and Bogdan Bogdanovic off the bench.
Harden is still a highly capable scorer in this advanced portion of his career, coming off 39 points in that overtime win over the Warriors but putting up similar number in regulation against the Nuggets this year. The primary ball-handler, Harden also had 10 assists and 7 rebounds to boot in a near-triple-double effort to finish the regular season.
Kawhi Leonard is still one of the most talented players in the NBA when available, and he’s available with no restrictions for the Clippers, playing 47 minutes against the Warriors in the overtime win. Leonard tallied 33 points, second only to Harden, making 13-of-20 shots, 4-of-8 three-pointers, and 3-of-5 free throws.
After the elite two-man game that Harden and Leonard put up, Most Improved Player of the Year candidate Ivica Zubac connected on 11-of-16 shots for 22 points to go along with 17 boards. Zubac is 7’0″, and will pose challenges to Jokic, who isn’t known to be an elite rim protector.
The only other players to take shots for the Clippers were Powell (4-for-13), Dunn (4-for4, 3-for-3 three-pointers), Bogdanovic (2-for-7) and Jones Jr. (1-for-3.)
My point being, when the season is on the line, the Clippers lean heavily in to the offensive talents of Harden, Leonard, and Zubac. This often works out well for the 50-32 Clippers, but if the Nuggets can slow down the Clippers’ top shooters, the path to victory may become much easier.
Bench roles obviously shrink for all teams in the postseason, but the Clippers’ Game 82 strategy also showed that their bench may not be able to tilt the outcome of games. Ben Simmons, who didn’t take a single shot in 11 minutes on the court in the Clippers’ regular season finale, could certainly be an X-factor, but he could also be a non-factor.
The Nuggets have historically had depth issues at this time of the year as well, but Russell Westbrook is an incredible asset off the bench, especially come playoff time, where he could almost operate as a “sixth starter.” Peyton Watson is also a versatile bench asset, and Julian Strawther and Jalen Pickett are probably ready to see some important minutes as well.
Outlasting the Clippers will require getting a little bit of production from the bench unit and allowing the Nuggets starters to take a break, and Westbrook and Watson may be able to do just that. The problem remains that the Nuggets don’t have a true backup center to Jokic. The Dario Saric experiment didn’t work out. Aaron Gordon can slide to be an undersized center, but then the whole lineup is at risk of becoming undersized to a Clippers team that will play big and through Zubac if neccesary.
But Deandre Jordan and Zeke Nnaji are also options, with Jordan seeing productive and even explosive minutes in his limited (but expanding) time on the court this season, including more as of late. Nnaji goes up and down in playing time, but has been a positive on the court as well, even hitting timely three-pointers to add to his repitore.
While playoff rotations are traditionally only seven to eight men deep, Jordan and/or Nnaji might need to sneak their way in there just due to the fact that most of the other key bench players can’t spell the power forward or center positions.
The Los Angeles Clippers have a lot of talent. James Harden is somehow still one of the best passers and scorers in the game at 35 years old, and 33-year-old Kawhi Leonard has already taken two teams to NBA championships.
A healthy Leonard is a scary prospect for any opposing team, and Leonard hasn’t scored less than 20 points in a game since March 9: he’s not just back on the court, he’s back as one of the best players on the court each and every night.
But while the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers both finished 50-32 in the regular season, and 2-2 against each other, implying they’re essentially dead-locked, this is still the Nuggets series to lose.
For seeding purposes alone, it literally is the Nuggets series to lose: the Nuggets are narrow favorites, and if every team just wins their home games, the Nuggets would advance. This will likely be the only series Denver is favored or “supposed” to win this postseason, with even more formidable opponents on the horizon should they advance.
For the Clippers, will they continue riding their red-hot eight-game win streak they put together to finish the regular season? Or did Los Angeles just get hot at a convenient time?
The Nuggets scored 120.8 points per game this season, while allowing 116.9 points per game. The Clippers scored 112.9 points per game, and allowed just 108.2 points per game: the fourth-best defensive mark in the NBA.
In the playoffs, the game slows down a little bit, which could benefit the Clippers. The Nuggets can sometimes rely on scoring flurries to get themselves back in to games, and that might be harder against this Clippers team in the playoffs.
But if the Nuggets can play their game, they still should be able to etch out a series win. Get Jokic his 25 to 30 points a night, even if it means attacking the basket and getting to the foul line a bit more. Find the hot hand, whether it be Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr., ideally with some open looks as Jokic begins to draw doubles.
Get Aaron Gordon involved early and often: Gordon battled injuries this season and felt like a “decoy” at times on the court, not getting as involved as he used to as he rehabbed both on and off the court. But that’s changed recently, with Gordon getting back in to dunker spot and also continuing to nail three-pointers as he has for much of the season. The Nuggets were cautious with Gordon this season: maybe playing him more aggressively could have stole Denver another win or two, but ultimately, having Gordon at full strength for the playoffs is much more valuable.
Finally, Christian Braun, if you’re reading this, just keep taking the opportunities that come your way. Some nights, Braun’s defense and hustle are all the Nuggets need of him in order to get a win. Other nights, Braun can be found hitting a huge, nerve-wracking three-pointer to get the Nuggets a much-needed late bucket, or recently, Braun has even been scoring 20+ a night to support the Nuggets offense. Whatever the Nuggets need of Braun, he usually delivers for them, and that value will go a long way in these playoffs as the 2024-25 Most Improved Player candidate (and in my eyes, rightful winner) enters his first postseason as a starter.
My last point before I make a prediction: the Nuggets have to break a trend and just be better, which might even come from the unlikely firing of head coach Michael Malone and his interim replacement, David Adelman.
For the last two seasons, the Nuggets have shown they can play with literally anyone in the NBA: just not always for 48 minutes. Denver sometimes take a huge first quarter lead, only to find themselves losing at the buzzer to a 40-foot Jordan Poole three-pointer. Or sometimes the Nuggets roar back in the second half, but it’s too little too late as their first quarte defense can be porous.
And the wild second round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves that eliminated the Nuggets from the playoff last year? Don’t get me started on how many chances Denver had to put that series away, between a 3-2 series lead and a double digit lead at home in Game 7.
With all this in mind, the Nuggets biggest goal is to finish games and not relinquish leads of any kind: series or game.
I do think the Nuggets will win this series, but my confidence is far from commanding: I’d give Denver a 55-60% chance to win this series.
If the Nuggets drop even Game 1 or 2 though, losing homecourt advantage, those odds quickly approach 50-50.
A “chalk” series is honestly possible: both teams win their home games, and this first round series goes the seven-game distance with the Nuggets coming out on top.
I think a six-or-seven game series is likely, but it may not play out exactly that way. The Clippers just might steal Game 1 or 2, and the Nuggets were a pretty strong road team this season.
So my official prediction is a seven-game series, with both teams stealing road games, but ultimately, the Nuggets winning Game 7 at home.
In their pursuit of a second-ever NBA Championship, a seven-game first round series might not be the best blueprint for success, but it may be necessary.
If the Nuggets can win Games 1 and 2 at home, and steal Game 3 or 4 in Los Angeles, there is a chance this series wraps up in as few as five games, even though I think it has the potential to go the distance. The same goes for the Clippers: steal Game 1 or 2 in Denver, win your home games, and close out the series in five or six.
Game 7 would also be ripe for the taking for the Clippers: having Leonard and Harden in your corner in a winner-take-all game could be a trump card.
But so could having three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, who is only getting more involved with his team on and off the court since the departure of Micheal Malone.
PREDICTION: Nuggets win in seven games, both teams win road games
Header Photo Credit: AP News
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