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Who are the 2024-25 Denver Nuggets and how far can they be expected to go in the 2025 NBA playoffs? With just over two weeks left in the regular season, […]
Who are the 2024-25 Denver Nuggets and how far can they be expected to go in the 2025 NBA playoffs? With just over two weeks left in the regular season, it’s anyone’s guess.
From January 31 to February 20, the Nuggets looked red-hot with nine straight wins. But Denver was smacked back down to Earth on February 22, facing the new-look Los Angeles Lakers for the first time and subsequently losing 123-100. The Nuggets alternated wins and losses over a six-game stretch, starting with that loss to the Lakers and also including narrow losses to the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics, with wins over the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, and Sacramento Kings.
Prior to this stretch, the Nuggets had briefly held control over the Western Conference’s number two seed: control as in, keep winning, and it would’ve been theirs. But a couple losses, particularly to the Lakers as they heated up in their Luka Doncic era, put this in jeopardy.
In the second weekend of March, the Nuggets faced a huge series against the number one team in the West: the Oklahoma City Thunder, and presumed 2024-25 NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The first game of the back-to-back series played in Oklahoma City was a decisive Thunder win: 127-103, raising major concerns about what would happen if these two teams met in the postseason. But the Nuggets flipped the script just a day later, downing the Thunder 140-127 behind 35 points from Nikola Jokic.
But then two days later, the Minnesota Timberwolves (responsible for eliminating the Nuggets last year in the second round of the playoffs) came in and embarrassed the Nuggets on their Ball Arena homecourt: winning 115-95.
The Nuggets followed up this performance with a home win over the Lakers: in a game where Luka Doncic and LeBron James both sat out. Dalton Knecht and Austin Reaves almost pulled off a short-handed upset for the Lakers, but the Nuggets won 131-126 on a Jamal Murray game-winner in the final minute. It was a key win, but the questions surrounding the Nuggets playoff aptitude this season only grew louder. Was this a team capable of making an NBA Finals run, or a team that could barely beat a star-less Lakers squad?
The Nuggets season hit a new-low point the following night against the Washington Wizards. Despite grabbing a double-digit early lead, Denver found themselves potentially headed to overtime against the worst team in the league, on their own home court. But Jordan Poole had other thoughts, sending the Nuggets home with a loss after drilling a 35-foot three-pointer in the final seconds of the game, dropping the Nuggets record to 43-25.
In back-to-back nights, the Nuggets nearly lost to a shell of a Lakers team, and did lose to the worst team in the league… for the second time this season.
After the game, three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic had some harrowing words for his team: “I think who you are in the regular season, that’s who you are in the playoffs… you cannot flip a switch.”
While individuals like LeBron James and Jimmy Butler have historically “flipped the switch” when their team needed them most in the postseason, Jokic is absolutely right from a team-standpoint. The Nuggets aren’t suddenly going to regain their championship form when the calendar changes from regular season to playoffs: they need to make changes now, or risk irrelevance in the postseason.
At a crossroads in their season, the Nuggets were tasked with hitting the road for four games, with three matchups against hungry playoff-worthy opponents: the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, and Los Angeles Lakers.
To make matters worse, Jokic was unavailable for all four games, with Jamal Murray also missing the first two games of the trip against Golden State and Los Angeles.
The Warriors game produced a slightly unlikely, feel-good win for the Nuggets, with Aaron Gordon having a career-night and posting 38 points, and Russell Westbrook recording a triple-double.
But the following game against the Lakers, this time with Luka Doncic in tow, wasn’t as pretty. Doncic put up 31 points in the game including 21 points in the first quarter alone. Nuggets stock is back down, as Denver blew many offensive and defensive opportunities in this game.
The Nuggets’ next loss, to the Portland Trail Blazers, may not sting as much as the Wizards loss on paper. But being the “easy game” of the road trip, getting Murray back on the court, and needing the win to keep pace in the tight Western Conference standings all contributed to making this a pretty bad loss for the Nuggets. Denver barely showed up on the court, losing 128-109 and getting the detractors talking once again. Do the Nuggets even care for the game of basketball when Jokic isn’t on the court? Are Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. capable of picking up the slack when Jokic isn’t available?
Just when it looked like the Nuggets might continue their free-fall and even approach play-in tournament territory, the team stepped up on every level when they needed to most. Jamal Murray helped lead the Nuggets to a 116-111 win over a Houston Rockets squad that had just won nine games in a row. Murray tallied 39 points in the win and DeAndre Jordan turned in a vintage performance in a spot start.
The win was especially sweet as it keeps Houston at arms length in the standings down the stretch.
Last season, the Nuggets narrowly missed out on the number one seed in the Western Conference, and they put all their resources last March and April in to achieving this goal. It looked possible after a big win over Minnesota at home, but an early April road loss to the Spurs not only shocked the Nuggets out of the top seed: it may have broken them for weeks to come.
This season, the Nuggets are taking a more cautious approach. Is Denver indifferent to earning a higher seed? They shouldn’t be, as it’s still valuable, and the Nuggets absolutely should’ve beaten the Wizards to get at least one more win under their belt in this race. But by holding Jokic and Murray out a couple games, while still due to legitimate injury, Michael Malone and the Nuggets seem to be gearing up for the long run.
With the #1 seed out of reach, the Nuggets could end up anywhere from the second-to-fifth seed right now, with a top four seed (and homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs) looking particularly likely.
On paper, the Nuggets championship aspirations shouldn’t change too significantly as long as they land a top four seed. Sure, the #2 seed would guarantee homecourt against any team not named the Thunder, but the Nuggets are solid both at home and on the road this season.
Additionally, earning the #2 seed could potentially yield the Minnesota Timberwolves (who knocked Denver out last year and still appears to have their number) or Golden State Warriors (pretty dangerous with Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler on the court.) I’m not advocating for the Nuggets to “pick their opponent,” but a first-round matchup against say, the Memphis Grizzlies, in the #4 vs. #5 slot, might not be the end of the world.
What will matter for the Nuggets heading in to the postseason is health. By avoiding the play-in tournament, Denver will earn themselves a couple days off: a higher seed at that point will be icing on the cake.
The Nuggets play their next five games at home, with Nikola Jokic expected to return during the homestand, and have 10 games left overall.
Assuming the Nuggets aren’t relegated to the play-in tournament, the 2025 NBA Playoffs will begin on Saturday, April 19.
The Nuggets go 7-3 over their final ten games, finishing the regular season with a 52-30 record, earning the second or third seed in the West, with the Rockets finishing potentially ahead of them, while staying ahead of the Lakers.
The Nuggets win their first-round matchup against the 6th or 7th seed, then face a tough second-round series against Oklahoma City or the Los Angeles Lakers.
At that point, the Nuggets will have to decide if they’re a better team than they were last season, or if they stay stagnant and face another second round exit.
The Nuggets aren’t the favorites to win the West, and they shouldn’t be. But if Denver gets past the second round, an NBA Finals appearance or even victory could certainly be in the cards.
It all comes down to consistency, health, and once again, consistency. The Nuggets can’t make a deep playoff run playing as they have over the past month: but I think they still possess the ability if they dig deep enough.
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Header Photo Credit: GMA Network
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