#6 Buffalo Bills at #1 Denver Broncos: Divisional Round Preview and Prediction

The Denver Broncos shocked many in the NFL by not just winning the AFC West, but finishing with the best record in the AFC, tied for the best record in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills have been here before, but are accustomed to winning the AFC East: with Drake Maye and the New England Patriots relegating Buffalo to a wildcard team this season.

Buffalo emerged victorious by the skin of their teeth in a tense Wildcard Weekend win over the Jacksonville Jaguars: the very same Jaguars team that was the only team to beat the Broncos after Week 3.

The favorite for this game has flip-flopped already, from Buffalo being a 1.5-point favorite to the Broncos being a 1.5-point favorite. I kind of like this 1.5-point spread, as I could really see a one or two-point win happening on Saturday in either direction.

This is also a rematch from last year’s playoffs, where the Bills won 31-7 on their home turf.

Can the Broncos back up the fact they finished with the best record in the AFC, and advance to the AFC Championship? Or without Patrick Mahomes in the way, is Josh Allen going to get one step closer to his first Lombardi Trophy?

There’s a lot to consider, so here are some key points going in to Saturday afternoon’s Divisional Round opener between the Broncos and Bills.

Rest vs. Fatigue

Josh Allen was one of the 13 Buffalo Bills players listed on the mid-week injury report. The Bills are banged up following their road win over the Jaguars last week, and you could see Allen getting slower the more hits he took from Jacksonville’s defense.

The Broncos, on the other hand, suffered their injury bug earlier in the season, and are largely healthy for their biggest game in a decade. Running back J.K. Dobbins remains out, but may return soon. Most of all, the Broncos have had nearly two weeks off since their Week 18 win over the Chargers: Denver is rested, and roaring to go.

Homefield Advantage

The Broncos finished 8-1 this season at Empower Field at Mile High, the best home record in the NFL. The only team to beat the Broncos at home was the Jacksonville Jaguars, in December. Jacksonville controlled that game by outscoring the Broncos, to the tune of a 34-20 victory. The lower scoring the game, the more I would like the Broncos to emerge victorious. On the flip side, if the Bills can eclipse 30 points, I think it’s unlikely Bo Nix and the Broncos offense can keep up.

The Broncos scored 33 fourth quarter points against the New York Giants in one of the wildest games of the year, and while this year’s Buffalo defense isn’t elite, they won’t let that happen.

Denver also has the advantage of playing at Mile High-elevation: notorious for winding opponents quickly. It is worth noting Allen played his college ball at the University of Wyoming, at an even higher elevation in Laramie, Wyoming. However, just because Allen has experience playing at elevation doesn’t mean he or his team won’t experience the biological effects that come with traveling from sea level to 5280 feet.

Comeback Kids vs. Comeback King

The Broncos 14-3 regular season mark may look elite, but if you didn’t follow the team this season, you may be surprised how many fourth quarter comebacks were necessary. Denver seldom had the lead heading in to the fourth quarter this season, but closed out games at a nearly perfect rate. Will the Broncos continue being clutch in the postseason, or is a regression to the mean inevitable? For comparison, the Broncos are winning one-score games just like last year’s Kansas City Chiefs: who at least advanced to the Super Bowl before meeting their match in the Philadelphia Eagles.

But Josh Allen is no stranger to playing from behind either, with 17 fourth quarter comebacks and 25 game-winning drives under his belt in the regular season. In the postseason, Allen has just one fourth quarter comeback/game-winning drive: last week on the road against the Jaguars. Allen would also have more postseason game-winning drives if Patrick Mahomes didn’t always find a way to make his own comeback afterwards.

Based on the recent sample of this year, you might feel confident in Bo Nix and Sean Payton to pull out a late victory in a close game. But if Josh Allen gets the ball, down a score or less and especially three points or less, I would be terrified to be the Broncos defense. Allen has a cannon of an arm, and could get the Bills in to field goal range in just a throw or two with under a minute left.

Bo Nix vs. Josh Allen

The quarterback duel is usually the headline in an NFL playoff game, but that might not be the case here. Bo Nix might not have to outplay Josh Allen for the Broncos to win this game: that is to say, Nix may not have to do anything above and beyond his normal play. Of course, a “quarterback duel” is really just the cross-section of Josh Allen vs. the Broncos defense and Bo Nix vs. the Bills defense. And of those two matchups, Allen is going to have the tougher day.

From the Nik Bonitto-led pass-rush to Pat Surtain II and the shutdown secondary, the Broncos defense vs. Josh Allen is probably the single biggest factor in deciding the game. If Denver’s defense can shut Allen down, it will be the Broncos game to lose.

The Broncos defense has elite talent, but has also allowed some scoring outbursts this season: 34 points at home to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, 26 points on the road to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, 32 points at home to Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants.

Denver’s offense has only put up 30 points three times this season: against the Giants, Cowboys, and Packers. Like I said earlier, if the Bills can start to sniff 30 points, the odds of the Broncos winning go down drastically.

Bo Nix is more than a game manager, but he’s not quite a Pro Bowler. Nix makes some mistakes, and his deep ball connections haven’t always been on this year. For these reasons, the Broncos can’t afford to play from behind and be forced in to “hero ball” mode.

The Bills have the luxury of still having a chance to win even when the fundamentals break down and Allen has to improvise, backyard-style.

Finally, returning to the concept of fourth quarter comebacks: yes, Nix and the Broncos have pulled off comebacks, in fact Nix led 10 game-winning drives in the Broncos 14 wins this year. But returning specifically to a scenario where your opponent goes up three points, and you get the ball back with less than a minute: Allen is much more equipped to emerge victorious in that scenario.

Prediction

If I was keeping a scorecard, it seems like the Denver Broncos have more advantages here. Homefield advantage is also big in the NFL playoffs, and even more so when you have the hardest stadium to play in, in the league. The Broncos are well-rested while the Bills are banged up. The Broncos defense is the best unit that will play on the football field on Saturday afternoon.

Yet, picking a sophomore Bo Nix over a seasoned, perennial Pro Bowler in Josh Allen seems difficult. As we’ve established, a football game is so much more than comparing the two quarterbacks. If both teams had hypothetically equal quarterbacks, I would take the Broncos, with little to no hesitation and probably a full touchdown win.

But Josh Allen really is that much of an X-Factor, even if this hasn’t been his best statistical season of his career. Josh Allen is 8-6 in his playoff career, which is an incredible wealth of experience. Allen also lost his first playoff game back in 2020, so he’s 8-5 since then. Furthermore, if you take out the losses to the Chiefs (who have the one guy that’s even more magical at the end of games than Allen), then Allen improves to 8-1, with a lone loss to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Obviously I’m bending the numbers here, but the point is this: it’s not Josh Allen’s first playoff game anymore, and he’s not playing against future Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes. He’s 8-1 in that scenario. And yes, the Chiefs matchups are worth omitting in this stat because of just how different those games are.

Additionally, looking to last year’s 31-7 Wildcard Weekend win for the Bills over the Broncos. Have the Broncos gotten better since then? Yes. Have the Bills regressed a little bit? Also yes. Finally, the game is playing played in Denver this season instead of Buffalo, something Broncos head coach Sean Payton yearned for since last year’s playoff loss.

But the question remains: even with those three factors, has a 24-point gap between these two teams been closed?

Let’s not forget, the Broncos even scored first in that 31-7 loss, and then Bo Nix and the offense couldn’t get anything done the rest of the game.

I think Denver has closed that 24-point gap significantly, and there are multiple paths to victory for the Broncos in this game. It’s hard to pick against a rested #1 seed in the current playoff format.

But it’s also hard to beat Josh Allen in the playoffs, even if his 8-6 career record seems to be close to .500. Five of those six losses have come to elite quarterbacks, and unfortunately, for all the steps forward the Broncos have taken this season, Bo Nix is not elite quite yet, and can’t be trusted to put the team on his back in a do-or-die scenario.

I think the game will be relatively low-scoring, ending in the low 20’s. There’s a few paths to the score I’m going to predict, the most thrilling being the game being decided by a late two-point conversion or touchdown.

Bills win 21-20