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The Denver Broncos just keep on winning football games. It isn’t always pretty, and Denver sometimes plays down to their level of competition, but through 13 weeks, the Broncos are […]
The Denver Broncos just keep on winning football games. It isn’t always pretty, and Denver sometimes plays down to their level of competition, but through 13 weeks, the Broncos are 10-2 and can lay claim to being the best team in the AFC if not the entire NFL.
The Broncos haven’t lost since Week 3, when they fell to 1-2 after back-to-back losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers on the road by a combined four points (both on walk-off field goals). Since then, Denver has rattled off nine straight wins, including seven one-score wins (the Broncos’ Week 1 win was also technically a one-score win, bringing Denver’s season total to eight.)
Pundits will say a good team should win by more than one score and give their defense some breathing room. The Broncos beat the New York Jets in London by just two points, needed 33 points in the fourth quarter at home to overcome the New York Giants, and barely squeaked by the Las Vegas Raiders 10-7 at home in front of a national audience on Thursday Night Football.
But Denver also has wins over both teams that played in Super Bowl 59, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. Wins over the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans are looking better and better by the week, as those teams are heating up as the playoff race intensifies.
Week 13’s Monday Night Football win over the Washington Commanders will probably give the aforementioned pundits more fodder: “Why would a Super Bowl contender let the 3-8 Washington Commanders, with their backup quarterback, bring the game to overtime, and then down to a single play?”
But no matter what situation is thrown at them, Sean Payton’s Broncos have found a way to respond each and every time. The Broncos have trailed in every game they have played this season so far, and are still 10-2 with their only losses coming on buzzer-beating field goals.
The Broncos strong suit is, quite obviously, their stellar defense. An elite secondary, a talented pass rush, and a strong linebacking core make the entire Broncos defense a force to be reckoned with. Pat Surtain II, Dre Greenlaw, and Alex Singleton all missed time this season, but the defense was out in full force for Week 13’s Sunday Night Football matchup against the Commanders, with Denver coming off their bye week.
Quarterback Bo Nix’s final line looked pretty clean: 29-for-45, 321 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception. But both the interception and the inability to sustain a long drive late in the fourth quarter to keep the ball out of Marcus Mariota’s hands gave the Commanders every chance to tie the game and force overtime. The Broncos defense was asked to make three stops late in the fourth where they could have only been asked to make one or two if Nix and RJ Harvey could have milked the clock a bit more.
Speaking of Harvey, the rookie finished with just 35 yards on 13 carries for 2.7 yards per carry, but did find the endzone twice including a go-ahead touchdown in overtime. Harvey was stuffed often and made some questionable reads in the absence of veteran running back J.K. Dobbins.
Offensive standouts included tight Evan Engram (6 catches, 79 yards) and wide receiver Courtland Sutton (5 catches, 62 yards, touchdown).
Marcus Mariota barely completed more than 50% of his passes, finishing 28-for-50 for 294 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Mariota was fighting for his life against the Broncos pass-rush in the fourth quarter and overtime, resulting in tons of incompletions and broken plays, but with Mariota making a play every time the Commanders were on their last leg.
In an overtime drive that appeared to be over multiple times (the Broncos extended the game with a defensive pass interference penalty), the Commanders found the endzone on a Mariota connection with Deebo Samuel, and then did the most sensible thing (regardless of their record but exacerbated by their poor position in the standings): go for two.
The Commanders even had an open receiver on the two-point attempt, but Sean Payton’s defense brought the pressure, and Nik Bonitto single-handedly saved the game as he swatted away Mariota’s pass attempt.
The Broncos improved to 10-2 with the win, temporarily moving in to first place in the AFC, ahead of the 10-2 New England Patriots on common opponents tiebreakers. The Patriots host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, and can reclaim the conference lead with their 11th win, before finally having a bye in Week 14.
With the Indianapolis Colts losing to the Houston Texans in Week 13, the race for the AFC’s #1 seed appears to be between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots (though the Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Chargers all technically have a shot if the Broncos and Patriots fall apart.)
After hosting the Giants and having their bye week, the Patriots host the 8-4 Buffalo Bills, play the 6-6 Baltimore Ravens and 3-9 New York Jets on the road, and then close out the season against the 5-7 Miami Dolphins. If New England can get past the Bills and Ravens unscathed, they may just be able to run the table to a 15-2 record, but those two games could also easily go the other way.
The Broncos get their next “easy” matchup against the 2-10 Las Vegas Raiders on the road in Week 14 before facing a bit of a gauntlet: Vs. 8-3-1 Green Bay Packers, Vs. 8-4 Jacksonville Jaguars, At 6-6 Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, Vs. 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18.
Sakmann Sports projects a win against the Raiders and then a potential 2-2 split in their last four games, resulting in a 13-4 record for the Broncos. This record would exceed almost all expectations for the Broncos this season, but might fall just short of the AFC’s #1 seed: I also would project the Patriots to finish 13-4 (with losses to Buffalo and Baltimore), but if New England wins one of those two games, the top seed would be theirs.
The Broncos’ final three games could also have big implications: the Jaguars could sneak in to this race with a head-to-head win over Denver, the Chargers could earn a season-sweep over Denver with a Week 18 win (thus winning the AFC West if the two teams finish with the same record), and the Christmas Day game against the Chiefs could have make-or-break implications for both teams depending on how the next few weeks play out.
Earning the #1 seed isn’t about bragging rights, it’s about having to play one less game to get to Super Bowl 60. Earning the #2 seed would seem like a dream for the Broncos after squeaking in to the postseason at 10-7 with the #7 seed last season. But the #2 seed this season could potentially draw Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Justin Herbert in the first round. There could be division winners less dangerous than some wildcard teams this season, so avoiding the wildcard round at all costs would be more beneficial than ever.
Will Bo Nix and the Broncos keep the top spot in the AFC standings heading in to the playoffs? I honestly don’t know, as the Broncos’ final four games will really determine what kind of team they are this season. In a worst-case scenario, the Broncos beat the Raiders, go 1-3 in their final four, and finish 12-5, earning the #2 or #3 seed. In an average-case scenario, the Broncos finish 13-4, and have a 50/50 chance of being the #1 or #2 seed. And in a best-case scenario, Denver finishes the season with maybe one more loss, finishing an elite 14-3, and almost certainly earning the AFC’s #1 seed and a first-round bye.
There’s a lot of scenarios, so be sure to follow Sakmann Sports on Twitter/X or on Facebook for more!
Header Photo Credit: Arizona Sports
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